China weakens further, Turkey in recessionary territory
Weakness in China was broad-based, with the GEAR now reading just 5.4 per cent. Car sales and imports softened materially. All real estate-related components have fallen in recent months, and such tentative weakness after a relatively robust year may prove to be a particularly notable trend going into next year. The economic uncertainty index also worsened significantly, business surveys remained uncomfortably close to contraction, and freight and electricity data kept weakening. Investment was one brighter spot. Exports also remained relatively strong, but perhaps will drop off as ‘front-running’ ahead of US tariffs fades.
Korea’s GEAR’s reading of 1.9 per cent put it close to three-year lows, due to both domestic and external weakness. On the consumer side, expectations weakened, which is reflected in slowing retail sales. On the trade front, export shipments are cratering.
Brazil’s GEAR of 0.3 per cent remained discouraging, as it has for most of the year. Mexico’s GEAR of 1.1 per cent fell for the second consecutive month.
Turkey’s GEAR of -4.9 per cent is deeply in recessionary territory, in line with that country’s third quarter gross domestic product data. The reading suggests that country’s economy is contracting by an annualised rate of around 5 per cent.
The ‘aggregate’ EM GEAR has never compared less favourably to that of developed markets (DMs).
US GEAR stands out
In contrast with the grim picture in most of the emerging world, the US looks set to end the year without any meaningful deterioration in growth from the very strong levels seen all year. Even the other DM GEARs, while not stellar, have shown some tentative signs of stabilisation.
At 3.9 per cent, US GEAR continued to show strength, though edged below 4 per cent for the first time since late 2017. This strength ran counter to the global trend of widespread slowdown. Underlying components were mixed, with business surveys relatively unchanged at high levels, while strong retail sales were offset by nascent weakness in labour market data.
The Eurozone’s GEAR at 1.7 per cent means it has marginally extended its slowdown, having fallen steadily since May 2018. Particularly notable were continued falls in business and consumer surveys, as well as a stall in the previously improving unemployment rate. Weakness was broad-based across the major countries, with Spain the only exception. France’s GEAR at 1.7 per cent was marginally weaker, as the country struggles with protests linked to fuel taxes.
The UK was the exception to any DM positivity. Its GEAR, at 1.3 per cent, has plunged in the past month or so amid the ongoing Brexit woes, and has hit essentially its lowest level since 2013. Retail sales keep falling substantially, as reflected in consumer confidence, which has also dropped. The negative trend in the housing market persists. The rise in the unemployment claimant count continues to be a concern, although this may be partly explained by the introduction of the ‘Universal Credit’ system, a comprehensive social security payment aimed at simplifying benefits.
Looking to 2019, however, our Fidelity Leading Indicator suggests that DMs should continue to slow into the start of the year, and that the US’s fiscal impulse will also start to fade.
Worauf sollten wir als Nächstes eingehen?
Schicken Sie Ihre Vorschläge per E-Mail firstname.lastname@example.org
Lesen Sie mehr
The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up so you may get back less than you invest. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
These materials are provided for information purposes only and are intended only for the person or entity to which it is sent.
These materials do not constitute a distribution, an offer or solicitation to engage the investment management services of Fidelity, or an offer to buy or sell or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities or investment product.
Fidelity makes no representations that the contents are appropriate for use in all locations or that the transactions or services discussed are available or appropriate for sale or use in all jurisdictions or countries or by all investors or counterparties.
Investors should also note that the views expressed may no longer be current and may have already been acted upon by Fidelity. They are valid only as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice.
This material was created by Fidelity International. It must not be reproduced or circulated to any other party without prior permission of Fidelity.
This communication is not directed at, and must not be acted on by persons inside the United States and is otherwise only directed at persons residing in jurisdictions where the relevant funds are authorised for distribution or where no such authorisation is required. Fidelity is not authorised to manage or distribute investment funds or products in, or to provide investment management or advisory services to persons resident in, mainland China. All persons and entities accessing the information do so on their own initiative and are responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations and should consult their professional advisers.
This content may contain materials from third-parties which are supplied by companies that are not affiliated with any Fidelity entity (Third-Party Content). Fidelity has not been involved in the preparation, adoption or editing of such third-party materials and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse or approve such content.
Fidelity International refers to the group of companies which form the global investment management organisation that provides products and services in designated jurisdictions outside of North America Fidelity, Fidelity International, the Fidelity International logo and F symbol are trademarks of FIL Limited. Fidelity only offers information on products and services and does not provide investment advice personal recommendations based on individual circumstances.
Issued in Europe: Issued by FIL Investments International (FCA registered number 122170) a firm authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, FIL (Luxembourg) S.A., authorised and supervised by the CSSF (Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier) and FIL Investment Switzerland AG, authorised and supervised by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA. For German wholesale clients issued by FIL Investment Services GmbH, Kastanienhöhe 1, 61476 Kronberg im Taunus. For German institutional clients issued by FIL Investments International – Niederlassung Frankfurt.
In Hong Kong, this content is issued by FIL Investment Management (Hong Kong) Limited and it has not been reviewed by the Securities and Future Commission. FIL Investment Management (Singapore) Limited (Co. Reg. No: 199006300E) is the legal representative of Fidelity International in Singapore. FIL Asset Management (Korea) Limited is the legal representative of Fidelity International in Korea. In Taiwan, independently operated by FIL Securities (Taiwan ) Limited, 11F, 68 Zhongxiao East Road, Section 5, Xinyi Dist., Taipei City, Taiwan 11065, R.O.C. Customer Service Number: 0800-00-9911#2.
Issued in Australia by Fidelity Responsible Entity (Australia) Limited ABN 33 148 059 009, AFSL No. 409340 (“Fidelity Australia”). This material has not been prepared specifically for Australian investors and may contain information which is not prepared in accordance with Australian law.