17 Oktober 2018, 14:32 GMT
Emerging markets weakness
The aggregate emerging market GEAR fell to 3.1 per cent this month, reflecting broad weakness across the countries covered.
Turkey dipping deeper into recessionary territory is notable, but slowdown in the China GEAR is perhaps more interesting. It hit the lowest since Q1 2016, making China’s Q3 hard data out later this week even more important to watch. The weakness in recent consumer data stands out, with both retail sales and car sales falling significantly. The Korea GEAR, at 2.0 per cent, also moved sharply lower, driven by weak manufacturing data.
As expected, Brazil’s high GEAR reading last month was an outlier driven by a rebound in industrial production after the truckers’ strike in May. It fell back to 1.3 per cent in September.
Other significant falls this month were the GEARs of India and Chile, both after surprising periods of strength. Conversely, Mexico and Poland bucked the trend with decent increases.
Source: Fidelity International, October 2018
Developed markets hold firm
The aggregate developed markets GEAR held steady in September at 2.6 per cent. The ‘good’ news is that the US ticked up again, almost testing the post-crisis highs. Other developed markets have been fine on balance, but the stuttering downtrend seen all year still looks intact - and it is interesting to see even Switzerland finally joining the downturn after stubbornly outperforming all year.
The US GEAR remains strong at 4.5 per cent, climbing back to levels last seen in May. Survey data continues to run hot, including ISM non-manufacturing and the NFIB small businesses optimism survey. Consumer confidence is robust, as has been the case for some time. However, this isn’t fully matched in hard data such as retail sales and consumption growth. We are keeping a close eye on weaker housing indicators.
The gradual downward trend of the Eurozone GEAR has continued this month. We are now back to 2.0 per cent, equal to the low set in March, making a reacceleration look increasingly unlikely. Business survey data in Europe continues to be a mixed bag, though the trend looks to be downward. Productivity surveys are weak across manufacturing and services. Business confidence surveys point to a more positive environment but this is not mirrored in hard data. The bifurcation of soft and hard data is also present in the consumer-focused measures.
Source: Fidelity International, October 2018
In the UK, the grinding, multi-year downward trend appears to be intact. A GEAR of 2.2 per cent this month points to modest growth but the latest pickup has been very narrow, driven almost exclusively by industrial production. The Japan GEAR, at 1.5 per cent, is comfortably positive despite recent noise. The direction of travel for industrial hard data is positive, even if the levels aren’t particularly stellar.
Lesen Sie mehr
The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up so you may get back less than you invest. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
These materials are provided for information purposes only and are intended only for the person or entity to which it is sent.
These materials do not constitute a distribution, an offer or solicitation to engage the investment management services of Fidelity, or an offer to buy or sell or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities or investment product.
Fidelity makes no representations that the contents are appropriate for use in all locations or that the transactions or services discussed are available or appropriate for sale or use in all jurisdictions or countries or by all investors or counterparties.
Investors should also note that the views expressed may no longer be current and may have already been acted upon by Fidelity. They are valid only as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice.
This material was created by Fidelity International. It must not be reproduced or circulated to any other party without prior permission of Fidelity.
This communication is not directed at, and must not be acted on by persons inside the United States and is otherwise only directed at persons residing in jurisdictions where the relevant funds are authorised for distribution or where no such authorisation is required. Fidelity is not authorised to manage or distribute investment funds or products in, or to provide investment management or advisory services to persons resident in, mainland China. All persons and entities accessing the information do so on their own initiative and are responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations and should consult their professional advisers.
This content may contain materials from third-parties which are supplied by companies that are not affiliated with any Fidelity entity (Third-Party Content). Fidelity has not been involved in the preparation, adoption or editing of such third-party materials and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse or approve such content.
Fidelity International refers to the group of companies which form the global investment management organisation that provides products and services in designated jurisdictions outside of North America Fidelity, Fidelity International, the Fidelity International logo and F symbol are trademarks of FIL Limited. Fidelity only offers information on products and services and does not provide investment advice personal recommendations based on individual circumstances.
Issued in Europe: Issued by FIL Investments International (FCA registered number 122170) a firm authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, FIL (Luxembourg) S.A., authorised and supervised by the CSSF (Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier) and FIL Investment Switzerland AG, authorised and supervised by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA. For German wholesale clients issued by FIL Investment Services GmbH, Kastanienhöhe 1, 61476 Kronberg im Taunus. For German institutional clients issued by FIL Investments International – Niederlassung Frankfurt.
In Hong Kong, this content is issued by FIL Investment Management (Hong Kong) Limited and it has not been reviewed by the Securities and Future Commission. FIL Investment Management (Singapore) Limited (Co. Reg. No: 199006300E) is the legal representative of Fidelity International in Singapore. FIL Asset Management (Korea) Limited is the legal representative of Fidelity International in Korea. In Taiwan, independently operated by FIL Securities (Taiwan ) Limited, 11F, 68 Zhongxiao East Road, Section 5, Xinyi Dist., Taipei City, Taiwan 11065, R.O.C. Customer Service Number: 0800-00-9911#2.
Issued in Australia by Fidelity Responsible Entity (Australia) Limited ABN 33 148 059 009, AFSL No. 409340 (“Fidelity Australia”). This material has not been prepared specifically for Australian investors and may contain information which is not prepared in accordance with Australian law.