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Welcome to Fidelity

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Willkommen bei Fidelity

Wählen Sie Ihren Standort aus, damit wir Ihnen die für Sie passenden Informationen anzeigen können.

Important information

I confirm that I am accessing this website for the purpose of acquiring information as, or for, an Institutional Investor (a corporate or other non-retail investor acting for their own account).

By accessing the restricted area I confirm my agreement with‚ and understanding of‚ the following terms of use and the legal provisions. If I do not agree to the terms and legal conditions‚ I must not access this website or any pages thereof. I acknowledge that access to the information contained on this website is available to "Qualified Investors" only as defined below. A private individual or legal representative or any other party without this qualification should not enter this website.

By accessing this website or any of its pages‚ I confirm that I am a qualified investor in accordance with Art 10.3 CISA.

The following are considered to be qualified investors:

  • supervised financial intermediaries such as banks, securities dealers‚ management companies and asset managers of collective investment schemes‚ as well as central banks;
  • supervised insurance companies;
  • public-law bodies and occupational pension institutions with professional treasury;
  • companies with professional treasury.

I understand the information contained in this website is not directed at, nor is it intended for distribution to, or use by, persons in any jurisdiction in which the dissemination of such investment related information is not permitted. I also understand that the information contained in this site is not directed to any party that may be defined as a ‘retail investor’ by the home regulator of the country in which the website is being accessed. I understand that the information or opinions contained herein should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any investment product nor shall any such investment products or services be offered or sold to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful. Fidelity has expressed its own views and opinions on this website, and these may change and there is no obligation to update them. Nothing in this website should be construed as investment, tax, legal or other advice. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.

I understand the information contained in this website is not directed at, nor is it intended for distribution to, or use by, persons in any jurisdiction in which the dissemination of such investment related information is not permitted. I also understand that the information contained in this site is not directed to any party that may be defined as a ‘retail investor’ by the home regulator of the country in which the website is being accessed. I understand that the information or opinions contained herein should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any investment product nor shall any such investment products or services be offered or sold to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful. Fidelity has expressed its own views and opinions on this website, and these may change and there is no obligation to update them. Nothing in this website should be construed as investment, tax, legal or other advice. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.

This website has been issued by FIL Fund Management Limited, a Bermuda company licensed to conduct investment business by the Bermuda Monetary Authority. Neither FIL Fund Management Limited, its parent company FIL Limited, nor any of their group companies or affiliates makes or gives any warranty or representation that any information contained on this website is accurate, complete, or fit for any particular purpose.

I acknowledge that neither FIL Fund Management Limited, FIL Limited, nor any of their group companies or affiliates will have any liability for any losses arising directly or indirectly from any information accessed from this website. By accepting this representation I also confirm my agreement to the website Terms and Conditions, which I have read and understood.

Fidelity International, the Fidelity International logo and F symbol are trademarks of FIL Limited, a company existing under the laws of Bermuda.

If the above representation is correct, please click 'I agree' below to continue to the site.

Information importante

Je confirme accéder à ce site Internet afin d’obtenir des informations en qualité d’investisseur institutionnel.

Je comprends que les informations contenues sur ce site Internet sont destinées exclusivement aux investisseurs résidant en France et ne doivent pas être diffusées à quiconque pouvant être considéré comme un investisseur particulier. Je comprends que les informations ou opinions présentées sur ce site ne constituent pas des recommandations d’achat ou de vente. Fidelity a exprimé ses propres vues et opinions sur ce site Internet, et celles-ci peuvent évoluer sans que Fidelity n’assume aucune obligation de les actualiser. Aucun élément de ce site Internet ne doit être interprété comme un avis d’investissement, fiscal ou juridique ou autre. Les informations que comporte ce site peuvent changer sans notification.

Ce site Internet est présenté par FIL Gestion, SGP agréée par l'AMF sous le n°GP03-004, 29 rue de Berri, 75008 Paris. Ni FIL Gestion, ni sa société mère FIL Limited, ni aucune des sociétés ou affiliées du groupe ne garantit ni ne fait aucune déclaration sur l’exactitude, l’exhaustivité ou l’adaptation à une finalité donnée des informations présentées sur ce site Internet.

Je reconnais que ni FIL Gestion, ni FIL Limited, ni aucune des sociétés ou affiliées du groupe n’assume une quelconque responsabilité au titre de toute perte découlant directement ou indirectement de toute information obtenue à partir de ce site Internet.

Ce site présentant des informations en langues française et anglaise, j’accepte de recevoir des informations non exclusivement rédigées en français.

Je confirme également, par l’acceptation de cette déclaration, mon accord sur les conditions et modalités du site Internet que j’ai lues et comprises.

Fidelity, Fidelity International, le logo Fidelity International ainsi que le symbole F sont des marques déposées de FIL Limited.

Si vous accepter les termes de la déclaration ci-dessus, veuillez cliquer sur « j’accepte » ci-dessous pour poursuivre votre navigation sur ce site.

Wichtige Informationen

Hiermit bestätige ich, dass ich diese Website zur Informationsbeschaffung als institutioneller Anleger (ein auf eigene Rechnung handelndes Unternehmen oder ein anderer nicht als Privatanleger geltender Investor) bzw. für einen institutionellen Anleger besuche.

Mit dem Zugriff auf den zugangsbeschränkten Bereich bestätige ich, dass ich die folgenden Nutzungsbedingungen und rechtlichen Klauseln verstanden habe und mit ihnen einverstanden bin. Andernfalls darf ich auf diese Website oder Teile davon nicht zugreifen. Mir ist bewusst, dass der Zugang zu den Informationen auf dieser Website nur für „qualifizierte Anleger“ gemäss untenstehender Definition vorgesehen ist. Eine Privatperson, ein rechtlicher Vertreter oder irgendeine andere Partei ohne diese Qualifikation sollte nicht auf diese Webseite zugreifen.

Mit dem Zugriff auf diese Website oder Teile davon bestätige ich, dass ich ein qualifizierter Investor gemäß Art 10 Absatz 3 des schweizerischen Bundesgesetzes über die kollektiven Kapitalanlagen bin.

Als qualifizierte Anlegerinnen und Anleger im Sinne dieses Gesetzes gelten:

  • beaufsichtigte Finanzintermediäre wie Banken, Effektenhändler, Fondsleitungen und Vermögensverwalter kollektiver Kapitalanlagen sowie Zentralbanken;
  • beaufsichtigte Versicherungseinrichtungen;
  • öffentlich-rechtliche Körperschaften und Vorsorgeeinrichtungen mit professioneller Tresorerie;
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Mir ist bewusst, dass sich die Informationen auf dieser Website nicht an Personen richten bzw. für sie bestimmt sind, in deren Land die Verbreitung solcher anlagebezogenen Informationen nicht erlaubt ist. Mir ist bewusst, dass die hier zu findenden Informationen oder Meinungen nicht als Aufforderung zum Kauf oder Verkauf eines Anlageprodukts zu verstehen sind. Es sollen auch keine solchen Anlageprodukte oder Dienstleistungen Personen angeboten oder verkauft werden, in deren Land ein entsprechendes Angebot, eine Aufforderung, ein Erwerb oder Verkauf ungesetzlich wäre. Fidelity äußert auf dieser Website seine eigenen Ansichten und Meinungen, die sich jederzeit ändern können, ohne dass eine Verpflichtung zur Aktualisierung besteht. Kein Inhalt dieser Website ist als Beratung in Bezug auf Geldanlagen, Steuern, rechtliche oder sonstige Aspekte zu verstehen. Die hierin enthaltenen Informationen können sich ohne entsprechende Mitteilung jederzeit ändern.

Mir ist bewusst, dass sich die Informationen auf dieser Website nicht an Personen richten bzw. für sie bestimmt sind, in deren Land die Verbreitung solcher anlagebezogenen Informationen nicht erlaubt ist. Mir ist ebenfalls bewusst, dass sich die Informationen auf dieser Website nicht an Adressaten richtet, die von der Aufsichtsbehörde in dem Land, von dem aus die Website besucht wird, möglicherweise als „Privatanleger“ klassifiziert werden. Des Weiteren ist mir bewusst, dass die hier zu findenden Informationen oder Meinungen nicht als Aufforderung zum Kauf oder Verkauf eines Anlageprodukts zu verstehen sind. Es sollen auch keine solchen Anlageprodukte oder Dienstleistungen Personen angeboten oder verkauft werden, in deren Land ein entsprechendes Angebot, eine Aufforderung, ein Erwerb oder Verkauf ungesetzlich wäre. Fidelity äußert auf dieser Website seine eigenen Ansichten und Meinungen, die sich jederzeit ändern können, ohne dass eine Verpflichtung zur Aktualisierung besteht. Kein Inhalt dieser Website ist als Beratung in Bezug auf Geldanlagen, Steuern, rechtliche oder sonstige Aspekte zu verstehen. Die hierin enthaltenen Informationen können sich ohne entsprechende Mitteilung jederzeit ändern.

Diese Website wurde von FIL Fund Management Limited eingerichtet, einem Unternehmen mit Sitz auf bzw. nach dem Recht der Bermuda-Inseln, das über eine Genehmigung der Bermuda Monetary Authority zur Ausübung von Investmenttätigkeiten verfügt. Weder FIL Fund Management Limited noch sein Mutterunternehmen FIL Limited oder irgendein anderes Konzernunternehmen oder verbundenes Unternehmen übernimmt die Gewähr dafür oder erklärt, dass die Informationen auf dieser Website zutreffend, vollständig oder für jedwede Zwecke geeignet sind.

Ich erkenne an, dass weder FIL Fund Management Limited noch FIL Limited oder ein anderes Konzernunternehmen bzw. verbundenes Unternehmen für etwaige Verluste haftet, die direkt oder indirekt aus einer auf dieser Website beschafften Information resultieren. Durch Annahme dieser Erklärung bestätige ich auch mein Einverständnis mit den Nutzungs- und Geschäftsbedingungen dieser Website, die ich gelesen und verstanden habe.

Fidelity International, das Fidelity International Logo und das F-Symbol sind Markenzeichen von FIL Limited, einem nach dem Recht der Bermuda-Inseln eingetragenen Unternehmen.

Diese Website präsentiert Informationen in englischer und deutscher Sprache. Als professioneller Anleger akzeptiere ich hiermit, Informationen in mehr als einer Sprache zu erhalten.

Wenn die obige Erklärung zutrifft, klicken Sie bitte auf „Ich stimme zu“, um auf die Website zu gelangen.

Informazioni importanti

Confermo di voler accedere a questo sito web per acquisire informazioni in veste o per conto di un Investitore istituzionale (una società o altro investitore non retail che agisce per proprio conto).

Riconosco che le informazioni contenute in questo sito web non sono dirette né sono destinate alla distribuzione o all’uso da parte di soggetti in qualsiasi giurisdizione in cui la diffusione di tali informazioni relative allinvestimento non è consentita. Riconosco inoltre che le informazioni contenute in questo sito web non sono dirette a soggetti che potrebbero essere definiti "investitori retail" dall'autorità di vigilanza nazionale del paese dal quale si accede al sito stesso. Riconosco che le informazioni o le opinioni contenute in questo sito web non devono essere interpretate come un'offerta di vendita o come la sollecitazione di un'offerta di acquisto di un prodotto o un servizio di investimento, né tali prodotti o servizi di investimento possono essere offerti o venduti a soggetti di giurisdizioni nelle quali tale offerta, sollecitazione, acquisto o vendita sarebbero illegali. Questo sito web contiene giudizi e opinioni espressi da Fidelity, che sono soggetti a modifica e rispetto ai quali non sussiste alcun obbligo di aggiornamento. Nulla di quanto contenuto in questo sito web va considerato come una consulenza di investimento, fiscale, legale o di altra natura. Le informazioni qui riportate sono soggette a modifica senza preavviso.

Questo sito web è pubblicato da FIL Fund Management Limited (una società delle Bermuda autorizzata a svolgere attività d'investimento dalla Bermuda Monetary Authority). Né FIL Fund Management Limited, né la sua società madre FIL Limited, né alcuna delle loro società del gruppo o affiliate fornisce o rilascia alcuna garanzia o dichiarazione che le informazioni contenute in questo sito web siano accurate, complete o adatte a uno scopo particolare.

Riconosco che né FIL Fund Management Limited, né FIL Limited né alcuna delle loro società del gruppo o affiliate si assumono alcuna responsabilità per eventuali perdite derivanti direttamente o indirettamente da informazioni ottenute da questo sito web. Accettando questa dichiarazione confermo anche di aver letto, compreso e accettato i Termini e le condizioni d'uso del sito web.

Fidelity International, il logo Fidelity International e il simbolo F sono marchi di proprietà di FIL Limited, una società costituita nelle Bermuda.

Se la dichiarazione di cui sopra è corretta, cliccare "Accetto" qui sotto per continuare a visitare il sito.

重要な情報

私は、機関投資家(自己勘定取引を行う個人投資家以外の法人その他の投資家)として、あるいはかかる機関投資家のために、当ウェブサイトにアクセスし、情報を取得するものです。

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当ウェブサイトはバミューダ籍の法人でバミューダ金融庁から投資事業免許を取得しているFILファンド・マネジメント・リミテッドが作成しています。FILファンド・マネジメント・リミテッド、その親会社であるFILリミテッド、またはそれらのグループ会社か関連会社のいずれも、当ウェブサイトに掲載される情報が正確であるとか、完全であるとか、特定の目的に適合したものである等の保証や表明は行っておらず、そういった保証や表明を提供することもありません。

FILファンド・マネジメント・リミテッド、FILリミテッド、またはそれらのグループ会社か関連会社のいずれもが、当ウェブサイトから入手した情報によって直接または間接的に発生した損失の責を負うものではないことに了承します。

フィデリティ・インターナショナル、フィデリティ・インターナショナルのロゴおよびFのシンボルはバミューダ法の下で設立された法人であるFILリミテッドの商標です。

以上をご確認いただける場合には、以下の「同意します」ボタンをクリックしてください。

Important information

I confirm that I am accessing this website for the purpose of acquiring information as, or for, an Institutional Investor (a corporate or other non-retail investor acting for their own account).

I understand the information contained in this website is not directed at, nor is it intended for distribution to, or use by, persons in any jurisdiction in which the dissemination of such investment related information is not permitted. I also understand that the information contained in this site is not directed to any party that may be defined as a ‘retail investor’ by the home regulator of the country in which the website is being accessed. I understand that the information or opinions contained herein should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any investment product nor shall any such investment products or services be offered or sold to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful. Fidelity has expressed its own views and opinions on this website, and these may change and there is no obligation to update them. Nothing in this website should be construed as investment, tax, legal or other advice. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.

This website has been issued by FIL Fund Management Limited, a Bermuda company licensed to conduct investment business by the Bermuda Monetary Authority. Neither FIL Fund Management Limited, its parent company FIL Limited, nor any of their group companies or affiliates makes or gives any warranty or representation that any information contained on this website is accurate, complete, or fit for any particular purpose.

I acknowledge that neither FIL Fund Management Limited, FIL Limited, nor any of their group companies or affiliates will have any liability for any losses arising directly or indirectly from any information accessed from this website. By accepting this representation I also confirm my agreement to the website Terms and Conditions, which I have read and understood.

Please note that FIL Fund Management Limited is not licensed by the Liechtenstein Financial Market Authority (“FMA”) and is not subject to the supervision of the FMA.

Fidelity International, the Fidelity International logo and F symbol are trademarks of FIL Limited, a company existing under the laws of Bermuda.

If the above representation is correct, please click 'I agree' below to continue to the site.

Wichtige Informationen

Hiermit bestätige ich, dass ich diese Website zur Informationsbeschaffung als institutioneller Anleger (ein auf eigene Rechnung handelndes Unternehmen oder ein anderer nicht als Privatanleger geltender Investor) bzw. für einen institutionellen Anleger besuche.

Mir ist bewusst, dass sich die Informationen auf dieser Website nicht an Personen richten bzw. für sie bestimmt sind, in deren Land die Verbreitung solcher anlagebezogenen Informationen nicht erlaubt ist. Mir ist ebenfalls bewusst, dass sich die Informationen auf dieser Website nicht an Adressaten richtet, die von der Aufsichtsbehörde in dem Land, von dem aus die Website besucht wird, möglicherweise als „Privatanleger“ klassifiziert werden. Des Weiteren ist mir bewusst, dass die hier zu findenden Informationen oder Meinungen nicht als Aufforderung zum Kauf oder Verkauf eines Anlageprodukts zu verstehen sind. Es sollen auch keine solchen Anlageprodukte oder Dienstleistungen Personen angeboten oder verkauft werden, in deren Land ein entsprechendes Angebot, eine Aufforderung, ein Erwerb oder Verkauf ungesetzlich wäre. Fidelity äußert auf dieser Website seine eigenen Ansichten und Meinungen, die sich jederzeit ändern können, ohne dass eine Verpflichtung zur Aktualisierung besteht. Kein Inhalt dieser Website ist als Beratung in Bezug auf Geldanlagen, Steuern, rechtliche oder sonstige Aspekte zu verstehen. Die hierin enthaltenen Informationen können sich ohne entsprechende Mitteilung jederzeit ändern.

Diese Website wurde von FIL Fund Management Limited eingerichtet, einem Unternehmen mit Sitz auf bzw. nach dem Recht der Bermuda-Inseln, das über eine Genehmigung der Bermuda Monetary Authority zur Ausübung von Investmenttätigkeiten verfügt. Weder FIL Fund Management Limited noch sein Mutterunternehmen FIL Limited oder irgendein anderes Konzernunternehmen oder verbundenes Unternehmen übernimmt die Gewähr dafür oder erklärt, dass die Informationen auf dieser Website zutreffend, vollständig oder für jedwede Zwecke geeignet sind.

Ich erkenne an, dass weder FIL Fund Management Limited noch FIL Limited oder ein anderes Konzernunternehmen bzw. verbundenes Unternehmen für etwaige Verluste haftet, die direkt oder indirekt aus einer auf dieser Website beschafften Information resultieren. Durch Annahme dieser Erklärung bestätige ich auch mein Einverständnis mit den Nutzungs- und Geschäftsbedingungen dieser Website, die ich gelesen und verstanden habe.

Fidelity International, das Fidelity International Logo und das F-Symbol sind Markenzeichen von FIL Limited, einem nach dem Recht der Bermuda-Inseln eingetragenen Unternehmen.

Bitte beachten Sie, dass die FIL Fund Management Limited von der Finanzmarktaufsicht Liechtenstein weder zugelassen noch beaufsichtigt ist.

Diese Website präsentiert Informationen in englischer und deutscher Sprache. Als professioneller Anleger akzeptiere ich hiermit, Informationen in mehr als einer Sprache zu erhalten.

Wenn die obige Erklärung zutrifft, klicken Sie bitte auf „Ich stimme zu“, um auf die Website zu gelangen.

What the rest of the world is predicting for 2029

These are the pieces which informed - and amused - our team as we prepared this edition on the world in 10 years hence. Forecasters offer us glimpses of the world in 2029 - and yes, it will have more robots.

11 January 2019

On Friday, April 13, 2029, a massive asteroid called Apophis will pass within 31,200 kilometres of Earth, and will shine brightly enough to view with the naked eye.

Named by the astronomers who discovered it in 2004 for the villain in Stargate, the Canadian-American military science adventure television series (who was in turn named for the Egyptian mythological demon serpent of darkness), Apophis was initially feared to be on a collision course with our planet. This sent NASA and other institutions around the world scrambling to gather data on its orbit.

Scientists’ latest reassuring consensus is that the hurtling monolith will be nothing more than an interesting sight in the night sky, and its near-miss is likely to underscore the vital importance of accurate and precise predictions.

Forecasters whose focus is more terrestrial offer us glimpses of what kind of world Apophis will fly over in 2029 - and yes, it will have more robots.

How we’ll be working and investing

We've all heard that technology and automation will disrupt the labour market in the future. This report from PwC provides a more nuanced look by imagining four scenarios of the state of work by 2030, set against the long-term trends of technological innovation, demographic changes, urbanisation, shifts in global economic power and resource scarcity. While slightly gloomy on the prospects for work (spoiler alert: if you want a job in 10 years' time, make sure you are good at things robots are not, such as leadership and emotional intelligence), it’s a thought-provoking piece and recommended reading for anyone interested in the future of employment and education.

Investment Firm of the Future, by the CFA Institute, is an interactive report exploring the issues that are set to materially affect the landscape of the investment management industry over the next decade and beyond.

The World Economic Forum takes a deep dive into how artificial intelligence could transform the financial services ecosystem in years to come, cutting through both the exuberance and the fear.

If you’re looking into how advances in robotics, automation and AI will shape the world to come, then this report from Deloitte has almost everything you need. The study found that senior executives are aware of the transformative power of new technologies, but aren’t sure how to use them.

Global workplaces are becoming more diverse, and it is to everyone’s advantage if this trend continues, according to a paper by Invesco. While diversity was once seen mainly as an aim in achieving social justice, they say it is now widely recognised as a source of competitive advantage that can underpin a meritocracy and benefit a business and its stakeholders.

ESG investing, which has already grown from a niche theme to a vital strategic component of most asset allocators and business decision makers, is expected to take on even more significance in the coming decade as countries try to achieve the goals of the UN’s 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development to eradicate poverty and inequalities and tackle climate change. This report from KPMG discusses trends and their implications for asset managers, to suggest what the investment management industry might look like in 2030.

Tracking the trends of the planet and its inhabitants

Euromonitor has identified 20 of the most influential megatrends to shape the world by 2030 with the focus on eight trends with the greatest impact on industries and consumers.

The US National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds looks at the biggest trends that are likely to impact society, healthcare, government and resources in the coming decade.

Scientists overwhelmingly agree that Earth is undergoing some climate changes, though they’re still debating the extent of the impact, as well as the causes - and how to best get ahead of these changes while there’s still time. Digital Technology and Environment: Using the digital transition to accelerate the ecological transition is a collaborative white paper from the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI), the Next generation internet foundation (FING), GreenIT.fr and WWF France, that proposes using digital technology to put more ecologically sustainable policies in place.

The World Economic Forum gathers experts before their Davos shindig for two days of crystal-ball gazing, and offers a treasure trove of content for those who can't attend the main conference in person, with recorded sessions and articles elaborating on topics such as infrastructure in 2030 and the globalisation of knowledge, as well as interviews with some key attendees.

In Feeding the Future: How Innovation and Shifting Consumer Preferences Can Help Feed a Growing Planet, Citi analysts lay forth a plan to meet the world’s food needs, as the global population rises from about 7 billion people in 2018 to 9-10 billion in the coming three decades.

This infographic from the OECD looks at the impact the next decade will have on population, natural resources, climate change, globalisation, governments, economies and society.

As the global network of air travel grows, the world will continue to ‘shrink,’ as formerly distant places become more accessible. This academic paper examines the impact of international long-distance flights on the allocation of economic activity - and the conclusion is that links by links by air don’t always translate into actual connections. Global air routes ‘helped the Shanghais of the world achieve convergence, but also increased the distance between them and the Vientianes.’

Political scientist Francis Fukuyama, who made his name with The End of History, has now zeroed in on the identity politics that arises from groups marginalized by factors such as income disparity and other social stigmas, as they seek to remedy their disadvantages. In his book Identity: The Demand for Dignity and the Politics of Resentment as well as in a recent essay in Foreign Affairs, he describes how these forces risk further dividing and alienating groups of people.

The BBC takes a more light-hearted look at the future by wondering what we’ll be wearing in 10 years’ time - everything from Apps integrated into clothes, emotion-sensing pieces and technology-based items that adapt to the environment, to spray-on clothing, bio-organic materials, and plants genetically modified to grow fabrics.

Debt looms as a risk

Given the current bull market is 10 years old, some kind of recession is likely in the next 10 years, though exactly when and why remains a mystery for now. If you're worried that such a long bull market has made you too complacent, take a quick look at the US Debt Clock for a cold reality check on the state of US public finances in real time. It's oddly hypnotic watching the counter for national debt increase by tens of thousands of dollars every second.

Debt is the chief concern of Nassim Nicholas Taleb, of Black Swan fame, in this video interview with Bloomberg. Taleb argues that the world is suffering from the same debt disease that caused the last crisis - debt has not been reduced, but simply moved from consumers and housing to corporate balance sheets and government. He believes the system is more fragile now than it was in 2007.

One of the more comprehensive long-term outlooks is this one from JP Morgan. At over 100 pages, it's not a quick read. But in keeping with the above themes, it includes some compelling essays on the nature of future recessions and the upward drift in government debt since the financial crisis.

Avoiding the pitfalls of prediction

The Internet is littered with past forecasts to which time has not been kind. We can't resist an opportunity to remind Bill Gates of one of his pronouncements in 1981 (though he later denied saying it): ‘No one will need more than 637KB of memory for a personal computer. 640KB ought to be enough for anybody.’

But prediction is a tricky business, and hindsight bias makes the eventual turn of events look obvious when it was far from certain beforehand. For an insight into avoiding the pitfalls of prediction and the techniques of some of the world’s best forecasters, we recommend the book Superforcasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner. It breaks down a 2005 study that found that forecasts from supposed experts were no more accurate than random chance, and that ordinary members of the public have proved to be more prescient forecasters than government officials with access to classified information. Fortunately, the art of forecasting can be taught, and the authors show how thinking probabilistically, and the ability to change course and admit errors, are key to hitting the bull’s-eye with future estimates.

For students of techniques for using data in decision-making, Forecasting: Principles and Practice by Rob Hyndman and George Athanasopolous is a useful textbook on the science of seeing the future.

Dystopian themes prevail in films and fiction set in 2029

For a depiction of more future forecasts from years past, we recommend the Back to the Future trilogy of films. In the 1980s the writers correctly predicted that by 2015 video conferencing, tablets and drones would be the norm. Flying DeLorean cars are still a pipe dream.

For some odd reason, 2029 frequently figures in both fiction and film, with dystopian themes most prevalent.

The year 1984 fortunately didn’t resemble anything depicted in George Orwell’s classic novel of that name, but it did bring us The Terminator, the first of five man-versus-machine films about a cyborg assassin sent back in time from 2029 to kill the future mother of a man who will one day lead the Human Resistance against AI.

On the bookshelf, Lionel Shriver’s The Mandibles: A Family, 2029-2047 explores the aftershocks of an economically devastating US sovereign debt default on four generations of a once-prosperous American family.

In Plum Rains, Andromeda Romano-Lax takes us to 2029 Tokyo, an automated, mostly childless city where a Filipina nurse looking after a Japanese centenarian fears she’s slowly losing her job to the latest model of social robot engineered to be an ideal human companion as well as a competent caregiver.

No mention of 2029 would be complete without a nod to Ghost in the Shell, the Japanese manga franchise set in that year. Kodansha published the original manga in 1989-1991, and animated features followed. A 2017 live-action movie is now remembered mostly for casting a white actress to play cyborg superagent Major Motoko Kusanagi - an ironic twist for a series that explores the nature of identity and consciousness as humans and machines become more entwined.

Armed with ‘weapons of reason’

Being able to accurately predict future events does not make you immune to their impact, though knowledge usually helps. Marcus Aurelius, who, as Roman Emperor, was at one time the most powerful person on earth, considered this point in his Meditations, saying: “Never let the future disturb you. You will meet it, if you have to, with the same weapons of reason which today arm you against the present.”

Earth’s inhabitants will have their chance to put these ‘weapons of reason’ to the test when they face whatever challenges 2029 brings - that is, unless scientists have tragically miscalculated Apophis’ trajectory, and then all bets are off.

Highly recommended list

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