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Hiermit bestätige ich, dass ich diese Website zur Informationsbeschaffung als institutioneller Anleger (ein auf eigene Rechnung handelndes Unternehmen oder ein anderer nicht als Privatanleger geltender Investor) bzw. für einen institutionellen Anleger besuche.

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Mir ist bewusst, dass sich die Informationen auf dieser Website nicht an Personen richten bzw. für sie bestimmt sind, in deren Land die Verbreitung solcher anlagebezogenen Informationen nicht erlaubt ist. Mir ist bewusst, dass die hier zu findenden Informationen oder Meinungen nicht als Aufforderung zum Kauf oder Verkauf eines Anlageprodukts zu verstehen sind. Es sollen auch keine solchen Anlageprodukte oder Dienstleistungen Personen angeboten oder verkauft werden, in deren Land ein entsprechendes Angebot, eine Aufforderung, ein Erwerb oder Verkauf ungesetzlich wäre. Fidelity äußert auf dieser Website seine eigenen Ansichten und Meinungen, die sich jederzeit ändern können, ohne dass eine Verpflichtung zur Aktualisierung besteht. Kein Inhalt dieser Website ist als Beratung in Bezug auf Geldanlagen, Steuern, rechtliche oder sonstige Aspekte zu verstehen. Die hierin enthaltenen Informationen können sich ohne entsprechende Mitteilung jederzeit ändern.

Mir ist bewusst, dass sich die Informationen auf dieser Website nicht an Personen richten bzw. für sie bestimmt sind, in deren Land die Verbreitung solcher anlagebezogenen Informationen nicht erlaubt ist. Mir ist ebenfalls bewusst, dass sich die Informationen auf dieser Website nicht an Adressaten richtet, die von der Aufsichtsbehörde in dem Land, von dem aus die Website besucht wird, möglicherweise als „Privatanleger“ klassifiziert werden. Des Weiteren ist mir bewusst, dass die hier zu findenden Informationen oder Meinungen nicht als Aufforderung zum Kauf oder Verkauf eines Anlageprodukts zu verstehen sind. Es sollen auch keine solchen Anlageprodukte oder Dienstleistungen Personen angeboten oder verkauft werden, in deren Land ein entsprechendes Angebot, eine Aufforderung, ein Erwerb oder Verkauf ungesetzlich wäre. Fidelity äußert auf dieser Website seine eigenen Ansichten und Meinungen, die sich jederzeit ändern können, ohne dass eine Verpflichtung zur Aktualisierung besteht. Kein Inhalt dieser Website ist als Beratung in Bezug auf Geldanlagen, Steuern, rechtliche oder sonstige Aspekte zu verstehen. Die hierin enthaltenen Informationen können sich ohne entsprechende Mitteilung jederzeit ändern.

Diese Website wurde von FIL Fund Management Limited eingerichtet, einem Unternehmen mit Sitz auf bzw. nach dem Recht der Bermuda-Inseln, das über eine Genehmigung der Bermuda Monetary Authority zur Ausübung von Investmenttätigkeiten verfügt. Weder FIL Fund Management Limited noch sein Mutterunternehmen FIL Limited oder irgendein anderes Konzernunternehmen oder verbundenes Unternehmen übernimmt die Gewähr dafür oder erklärt, dass die Informationen auf dieser Website zutreffend, vollständig oder für jedwede Zwecke geeignet sind.

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Confermo di voler accedere a questo sito web per acquisire informazioni in veste o per conto di un Investitore istituzionale (una società o altro investitore non retail che agisce per proprio conto).

Riconosco che le informazioni contenute in questo sito web non sono dirette né sono destinate alla distribuzione o alluso da parte di soggetti in qualsiasi giurisdizione in cui la diffusione di tali informazioni relative allinvestimento non è consentita. Riconosco inoltre che le informazioni contenute in questo sito web non sono dirette a soggetti che potrebbero essere definiti "investitori retail" dall'autorità di vigilanza nazionale del paese dal quale si accede al sito stesso. Riconosco che le informazioni o le opinioni contenute in questo sito web non devono essere interpretate come un'offerta di vendita o come la sollecitazione di un'offerta di acquisto di un prodotto o un servizio di investimento, né tali prodotti o servizi di investimento possono essere offerti o venduti a soggetti di giurisdizioni nelle quali tale offerta, sollecitazione, acquisto o vendita sarebbero illegali. Questo sito web contiene giudizi e opinioni espressi da Fidelity, che sono soggetti a modifica e rispetto ai quali non sussiste alcun obbligo di aggiornamento. Nulla di quanto contenuto in questo sito web va considerato come una consulenza di investimento, fiscale, legale o di altra natura. Le informazioni qui riportate sono soggette a modifica senza preavviso.

Questo sito web è pubblicato da FIL Fund Management Limited (una società delle Bermuda autorizzata a svolgere attività d'investimento dalla Bermuda Monetary Authority). Né FIL Fund Management Limited, né la sua società madre FIL Limited, né alcuna delle loro società del gruppo o affiliate fornisce o rilascia alcuna garanzia o dichiarazione che le informazioni contenute in questo sito web siano accurate, complete o adatte a uno scopo particolare.

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On the run: Turkey votes for Christmas

by Paul Greer Assistant Portfolio Manager

20 December 2017, 09:29 GMT

The Turkish Central Bank (CBRT) missed a golden opportunity yesterday to rebuild their battered credibility and boost investor confidence as we head into 2018. Instead they made a costly policy mistake.

Battling with sky high inflation, an overheating economy, a widening current account deficit and a spiralling currency, yesterday’s MPC decision offered the Turks a chance to get ahead of the curve again. With the country’s real policy rate now negative, investors had been hoping for some pragmatism and a recognition that monetary conditions were too loose. The market’s expectation for a token +100bps hike of the Late Liquidity Window (LLW) seemed both modest and politically achievable. Instead it seems the government once again heavily influenced the decision and yesterday’s tame +50bps hike to 12.75% reaffirmed the CBRT’s rather clumsy approach to setting interest rates.

Seasoned EM watchers will be familiar with Turkey’s long history of market crises over the years, often sparked by Central Bank policy errors. Years of overly loose monetary conditions have heavily contributed to a persistent structural current account deficit as savings have remained low and high growth has sucked in imports. The CBRT only need to look back at periods of extreme market dislocation in 2006, 2015 and late 2016 to remind themselves of the importance of high real policy rates in a country like Turkey.

It’s not all doom and gloom however and Turkey does have some redeeming qualities. The base effects on inflation over the coming next 4-5 months are large and should, in theory, help drag current 13% YoY CPI much closer to single digits. On the currency side the Lira’s Real Effective Exchange Rate is at all-time lows while very high nominal rates and benign market positioning are also in Turkey’s favour. However, investors will need more than just this to encourage them to place their money in the country. The market will want to see evidence of the declining inflation trajectory first and will watch closely to see what the large MoM CPI prints from Q1 this year will be replaced with in 2018. Brent oil priced in Lira continues to rise and will only add to price pressures as the country’s energy import bill remains uncomfortably high. Growth, meanwhile, is unsustainably high and the dual stimulus of loosening fiscal and zero/negative real interest rates is adding to the already high external imbalances. Until real policy rates get closer to +300bps (EM average: +220bps) investors will likely stay away.

As for portfolio construction, we currently see more value in Turkey’s external hard currency bonds rather than domestic debt. Turkey’s 10yr US Dollar government spread of T+285bps screens favourably versus similarly rated BB+ peers, trading +40bps wide to South Africa for example. Furthermore, Turkey’s proven track record of high willingness and ability to pay its sovereign external debt over the past 35 years is flawless, even during the country’s severe banking crisis in 2001. On the local market side however we remain cautious, waiting for further dislocation in the Lira before considering adding any more risk.

Date issued: 15 December 2017

This information is for Investment Professionals only and should not be relied upon by private investors. It must not be reproduced or circulated without prior permission.This communication is not directed at, and must not be acted upon by persons inside the United States and is otherwise only directed at persons residing in jurisdictions where the relevant funds are authorised for distribution or where no such authorisation is required. Fidelity International refers to the group of companies which form the global investment management organisation that provides information on products and services in designated jurisdictions outside of North America. Fidelity International does not offer investment advice based on individual circumstances. Any service, security, investment, fund or product mentioned or outlined in this document may not be suitable for you and may not be available in your jurisdiction. It is your responsibility to ensure that any service, security, investment, fund or product outlined is available in your jurisdiction before any approach is made to Fidelity International. This document may not be reproduced or circulated without prior permission. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Unless otherwise stated all products are provided by Fidelity International, and all views expressed are those of Fidelity International. Reference in this document to specific securities should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell these securities, but is included for the purposes of illustration only. Investors should also note that the views expressed may no longer be current and may have already been acted upon by Fidelity. The research and analysis used in this documentation is gathered by Fidelity for its use as an investment manager and may have already been acted upon for its own purposes. Fidelity, Fidelity International, the Fidelity International logo and F symbol are trademarks of FIL Limited. Fidelity Funds is an open-ended investment company established in Luxembourg with different classes of shares. Reference to FF before a fund name refers to Fidelity Funds. Fidelity only offers information on products and services and does not provide investment advice based on an individual's circumstances. The value of investments can go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amount invested. For funds that invest in overseas markets, changes in currency exchange rates may affect the value of an investment. Foreign exchange transactions may be effected on an arm's length basis by or through Fidelity companies from which a benefit may be derived by such companies. Germany: Investments should be made on the basis of the current prospectus and/or the Key Investor Information Document (KIID), which is available along with the current annual and semi-annual reports free of charge from FIL Investment Services GmbH, Postfach 200237, 60606 Frankfurt/Main or www.fidelity.de. Issued by FIL Investment Services GmbH.Austria: Investments should be made on the basis of the current prospectus and KIID (key investor information document), which is available along with the current annual and semi-annual reports free of charge from our distributors, from our European Service Centre in Luxembourg, FIL (Luxembourg) S.A. 2a, rue Albert Borschette BP 2174 L-1021 Luxembourg as well as from the Austrian paying agent UniCredit Bank Austria AG, Vordere Zollamtsstrasse 13, A-1030 Vienna, or on www.fidelity.at. Issued by: FIL (Luxembourg) S.A., authorised and supervised by the CSSF (Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier).Switzerland: We recommend you obtain detailed information before taking any investment decision. Investments should be made on the basis of the current prospectus and KIID (key investor information document), which is available along with the current annual and semi-annual reports free of charge from our distributors, from our European Service Centre in Luxembourg and from our legal representative and paying agent in Switzerland: BNP Paribas Securities Services, Paris, succursale de Zurich, Selnaustrasse 16, 8002 Zurich. Issued by FIL Investment Switzerland AG, authorised and regulated in Switzerland by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority.Italy: Please contact your financial advisor or the local branch of your bank in Italy. Spain: For the purposes of distribution in Spain, Fidelity Funds, Fidelity Funds II, Fidelity Active Strategy and Fidelity Alpha Funds SICAV are registered with the CNMV Register of Foreign Collective Investment Schemes under registration numbers 124, 317, 649 and 1298 respectively, where complete information is available from Fidelity Funds, Fidelity Funds II, Fidelity Active Strategy SICAV and Fidelity Alpha Funds SICAV’s authorised distributors. The purchase of or subscription for shares in Fidelity Funds, Fidelity Funds II, Fidelity Active Strategy and Fidelity Alpha Funds SICAV shall be made on the basis of the Key Investor Information Document (KIID) that investors shall receive in advance. The Key Investor Information Document (KIID) is available free of charge and for inspection at the offices of locally authorised distributors as well as at the CNMV.Portugal: In Portugal, Fidelity Funds are registered with the CMVM and the legal documents can be obtained from locally authorised distributors.Nordic region: We recommend that you obtain detailed information before taking any investment decision. Investments should be made on the basis of the current prospectus and KIID (key investor information document), which is available along with the current annual and semi-annual reports free of charge from our distributors and our European Service Centre in Luxembourg, FIL (Luxembourg) S.A. 2a, rue Albert Borschette BP 2174 L-1021 Luxembourg. United Kingdom: Please note that not all funds in the SICAV fund range are suitable for UK investors and tax advice should be sought before investing. Fidelity Funds are recognised under section 264 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 as amended by Rule 2(24) of the Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities (UCITS) Regulations 2011. Investors should note that loss caused by such recognised funds will not be covered by the provisions of the Financial Services Compensation Scheme (or by any similar scheme in Luxembourg) if the fund is unable to meet its obligations, however claims for loss in regards to such recognised funds against a Financial Conduct Authority-authorised firm such as Fidelity will be. The full prospectus and Key Investor Information Document (KIID) for these funds are available from Fidelity on request by calling 0800 414 181. The UK distributor of Fidelity Funds is FIL Investments International.The Netherlands: Investments should be made on the basis of the current prospectus and KIID (key investor information document), which is available along with the current annual and semi-annual reports free of charge from our distributors, from our European Service Centre in Luxembourg, FIL (Luxembourg) S.A. 2a, rue Albert Borschette BP 2174 L-1021 Luxembourg (tel. 0800 – 022 47 09). In the Netherlands, documents are available from FIL (Luxembourg) S.A., Netherlands Branch (registered with the AFM), World Trade Centre, Tower H, 6th Floor, Zuidplein 52, 1077 XV Amsterdam (tel. 0031 20 79 77 100). [Fidelity Funds/Fidelity Funds II] is authorised to offer participation rights in the Netherlands pursuant to article 2:66 (3) in conjunction with article 2:71 and 2:72 Financial Supervision Act.Belgium: We recommend that you obtain detailed information before taking any investment decision. Investments should be made on the basis of the current Key Investor Information Document (KIID) and prospectus, which are available along with the current annual and semi-annual reports free of charge from our distributors, from FIL (Luxembourg) S.A. and the financial service provider in Belgium, CACEIS België NV, with head office at Havenlaan 86C, B320, 1000 - Brussels.Poland: This information is for Investment Professionals in the meaning of the Annex II to the Directive 2004/39/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 21 April 2004 on markets in financial instruments amending Council Directives 85/611/EEC and 93/6/EEC and Directive 2000/12/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and repealing Council Directive 93/22/EEC only and should not be distributed to and relied upon by private investors. This material does not constitute a recommendation within the meaning of the Regulation of the Polish Minister of Finance Regarding Information Constituting Recommendations Concerning Financial Instruments or Issuers Thereof dated October 19, 2005. No statements or representations made in this document are legally binding on Fidelity or the recipient and not constitute an offer within the meaning of the Polish Civil Code Act of 23 April 1964. We recommend that you obtain detailed information before taking any investment decision. Investments should be made on the basis of the current prospectus, KIID (key investor information document) and Additional Information for Investors, which is available along with the current annual and semi-annual reports free of charge from our distributors, from our European Service Centre in Luxembourg FIL (Luxembourg) S.A. 2a, rue Albert Borschette BP 2174 L-1021 Luxembourg and the representative office in Poland. Luxembourg:We recommend that you obtain detailed information before taking any investment decision. Investments should be made on the basis of the current prospectus and KIID (Key Investor Information Document), which are available along with the current annual and semi-annual reports free of charge from our distributors, the entities listed below or from our European Service Centre in Luxembourg, FIL (Luxembourg) S.A. 2a, rue Albert Borschette BP 2174 L-1021 Luxembourg. Hong Kong:Please refer to the relevant offering documents for further information including the risk factors. If Investment returns are not denominated in HKD/ USD, US/HK dollar-based investors are exposed to exchange rate fluctuations. The material is issued by FIL Investment Management (Hong Kong) Limited and it has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”).Singapore: FIL Investment Management (Singapore) Limited [“FIMSL”] (Co. Reg. No.: 199006300E) is the representative for the fund(s) offered in Singapore. Potential investors should read the prospectus, available from FIMSL, before investing in the fund(s). Taiwan:FIL Securities (Taiwan) Limited is the legal representative of Fidelity International in TaiwanFIPM 2418