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Welcome to Fidelity

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Willkommen bei Fidelity

Wählen Sie Ihren Standort aus, damit wir Ihnen die für Sie passenden Informationen anzeigen können.

Important information

I confirm that I am accessing this website for the purpose of acquiring information as, or for, an Institutional Investor (a corporate or other non-retail investor acting for their own account).

By accessing the restricted area I confirm my agreement with‚ and understanding of‚ the following terms of use and the legal provisions. If I do not agree to the terms and legal conditions‚ I must not access this website or any pages thereof. I acknowledge that access to the information contained on this website is available to "Qualified Investors" only as defined below. A private individual or legal representative or any other party without this qualification should not enter this website.

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I understand the information contained in this website is not directed at, nor is it intended for distribution to, or use by, persons in any jurisdiction in which the dissemination of such investment related information is not permitted. I also understand that the information contained in this site is not directed to any party that may be defined as a ‘retail investor’ by the home regulator of the country in which the website is being accessed. I understand that the information or opinions contained herein should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any investment product nor shall any such investment products or services be offered or sold to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful. Fidelity has expressed its own views and opinions on this website, and these may change and there is no obligation to update them. Nothing in this website should be construed as investment, tax, legal or other advice. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.

I understand the information contained in this website is not directed at, nor is it intended for distribution to, or use by, persons in any jurisdiction in which the dissemination of such investment related information is not permitted. I also understand that the information contained in this site is not directed to any party that may be defined as a ‘retail investor’ by the home regulator of the country in which the website is being accessed. I understand that the information or opinions contained herein should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any investment product nor shall any such investment products or services be offered or sold to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful. Fidelity has expressed its own views and opinions on this website, and these may change and there is no obligation to update them. Nothing in this website should be construed as investment, tax, legal or other advice. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.

This website has been issued by FIL Fund Management Limited, a Bermuda company licensed to conduct investment business by the Bermuda Monetary Authority. Neither FIL Fund Management Limited, its parent company FIL Limited, nor any of their group companies or affiliates makes or gives any warranty or representation that any information contained on this website is accurate, complete, or fit for any particular purpose.

I acknowledge that neither FIL Fund Management Limited, FIL Limited, nor any of their group companies or affiliates will have any liability for any losses arising directly or indirectly from any information accessed from this website. By accepting this representation I also confirm my agreement to the website Terms and Conditions, which I have read and understood.

Fidelity International, the Fidelity International logo and F symbol are trademarks of FIL Limited, a company existing under the laws of Bermuda.

If the above representation is correct, please click 'I agree' below to continue to the site.

Information importante

Je confirme accéder à ce site Internet afin d’obtenir des informations en qualité d’investisseur institutionnel.

Je comprends que les informations contenues sur ce site Internet sont destinées exclusivement aux investisseurs résidant en France et ne doivent pas être diffusées à quiconque pouvant être considéré comme un investisseur particulier. Je comprends que les informations ou opinions présentées sur ce site ne constituent pas des recommandations d’achat ou de vente. Fidelity a exprimé ses propres vues et opinions sur ce site Internet, et celles-ci peuvent évoluer sans que Fidelity n’assume aucune obligation de les actualiser. Aucun élément de ce site Internet ne doit être interprété comme un avis d’investissement, fiscal ou juridique ou autre. Les informations que comporte ce site peuvent changer sans notification.

Ce site Internet est présenté par FIL Gestion, SGP agréée par l'AMF sous le n°GP03-004, 29 rue de Berri, 75008 Paris. Ni FIL Gestion, ni sa société mère FIL Limited, ni aucune des sociétés ou affiliées du groupe ne garantit ni ne fait aucune déclaration sur l’exactitude, l’exhaustivité ou l’adaptation à une finalité donnée des informations présentées sur ce site Internet.

Je reconnais que ni FIL Gestion, ni FIL Limited, ni aucune des sociétés ou affiliées du groupe n’assume une quelconque responsabilité au titre de toute perte découlant directement ou indirectement de toute information obtenue à partir de ce site Internet.

Ce site présentant des informations en langues française et anglaise, j’accepte de recevoir des informations non exclusivement rédigées en français.

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Fidelity, Fidelity International, le logo Fidelity International ainsi que le symbole F sont des marques déposées de FIL Limited.

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Wichtige Informationen

Hiermit bestätige ich, dass ich diese Website zur Informationsbeschaffung als institutioneller Anleger (ein auf eigene Rechnung handelndes Unternehmen oder ein anderer nicht als Privatanleger geltender Investor) bzw. für einen institutionellen Anleger besuche.

Mit dem Zugriff auf den zugangsbeschränkten Bereich bestätige ich, dass ich die folgenden Nutzungsbedingungen und rechtlichen Klauseln verstanden habe und mit ihnen einverstanden bin. Andernfalls darf ich auf diese Website oder Teile davon nicht zugreifen. Mir ist bewusst, dass der Zugang zu den Informationen auf dieser Website nur für „qualifizierte Anleger“ gemäss untenstehender Definition vorgesehen ist. Eine Privatperson, ein rechtlicher Vertreter oder irgendeine andere Partei ohne diese Qualifikation sollte nicht auf diese Webseite zugreifen.

Mit dem Zugriff auf diese Website oder Teile davon bestätige ich, dass ich ein qualifizierter Investor gemäß Art 10 Absatz 3 des schweizerischen Bundesgesetzes über die kollektiven Kapitalanlagen bin.

Als qualifizierte Anlegerinnen und Anleger im Sinne dieses Gesetzes gelten:

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Mir ist bewusst, dass sich die Informationen auf dieser Website nicht an Personen richten bzw. für sie bestimmt sind, in deren Land die Verbreitung solcher anlagebezogenen Informationen nicht erlaubt ist. Mir ist bewusst, dass die hier zu findenden Informationen oder Meinungen nicht als Aufforderung zum Kauf oder Verkauf eines Anlageprodukts zu verstehen sind. Es sollen auch keine solchen Anlageprodukte oder Dienstleistungen Personen angeboten oder verkauft werden, in deren Land ein entsprechendes Angebot, eine Aufforderung, ein Erwerb oder Verkauf ungesetzlich wäre. Fidelity äußert auf dieser Website seine eigenen Ansichten und Meinungen, die sich jederzeit ändern können, ohne dass eine Verpflichtung zur Aktualisierung besteht. Kein Inhalt dieser Website ist als Beratung in Bezug auf Geldanlagen, Steuern, rechtliche oder sonstige Aspekte zu verstehen. Die hierin enthaltenen Informationen können sich ohne entsprechende Mitteilung jederzeit ändern.

Mir ist bewusst, dass sich die Informationen auf dieser Website nicht an Personen richten bzw. für sie bestimmt sind, in deren Land die Verbreitung solcher anlagebezogenen Informationen nicht erlaubt ist. Mir ist ebenfalls bewusst, dass sich die Informationen auf dieser Website nicht an Adressaten richtet, die von der Aufsichtsbehörde in dem Land, von dem aus die Website besucht wird, möglicherweise als „Privatanleger“ klassifiziert werden. Des Weiteren ist mir bewusst, dass die hier zu findenden Informationen oder Meinungen nicht als Aufforderung zum Kauf oder Verkauf eines Anlageprodukts zu verstehen sind. Es sollen auch keine solchen Anlageprodukte oder Dienstleistungen Personen angeboten oder verkauft werden, in deren Land ein entsprechendes Angebot, eine Aufforderung, ein Erwerb oder Verkauf ungesetzlich wäre. Fidelity äußert auf dieser Website seine eigenen Ansichten und Meinungen, die sich jederzeit ändern können, ohne dass eine Verpflichtung zur Aktualisierung besteht. Kein Inhalt dieser Website ist als Beratung in Bezug auf Geldanlagen, Steuern, rechtliche oder sonstige Aspekte zu verstehen. Die hierin enthaltenen Informationen können sich ohne entsprechende Mitteilung jederzeit ändern.

Diese Website wurde von FIL Fund Management Limited eingerichtet, einem Unternehmen mit Sitz auf bzw. nach dem Recht der Bermuda-Inseln, das über eine Genehmigung der Bermuda Monetary Authority zur Ausübung von Investmenttätigkeiten verfügt. Weder FIL Fund Management Limited noch sein Mutterunternehmen FIL Limited oder irgendein anderes Konzernunternehmen oder verbundenes Unternehmen übernimmt die Gewähr dafür oder erklärt, dass die Informationen auf dieser Website zutreffend, vollständig oder für jedwede Zwecke geeignet sind.

Ich erkenne an, dass weder FIL Fund Management Limited noch FIL Limited oder ein anderes Konzernunternehmen bzw. verbundenes Unternehmen für etwaige Verluste haftet, die direkt oder indirekt aus einer auf dieser Website beschafften Information resultieren. Durch Annahme dieser Erklärung bestätige ich auch mein Einverständnis mit den Nutzungs- und Geschäftsbedingungen dieser Website, die ich gelesen und verstanden habe.

Fidelity International, das Fidelity International Logo und das F-Symbol sind Markenzeichen von FIL Limited, einem nach dem Recht der Bermuda-Inseln eingetragenen Unternehmen.

Diese Website präsentiert Informationen in englischer und deutscher Sprache. Als professioneller Anleger akzeptiere ich hiermit, Informationen in mehr als einer Sprache zu erhalten.

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Informazioni importanti

Confermo di voler accedere a questo sito web per acquisire informazioni in veste o per conto di un Investitore istituzionale (una società o altro investitore non retail che agisce per proprio conto).

Riconosco che le informazioni contenute in questo sito web non sono dirette né sono destinate alla distribuzione o all’uso da parte di soggetti in qualsiasi giurisdizione in cui la diffusione di tali informazioni relative allinvestimento non è consentita. Riconosco inoltre che le informazioni contenute in questo sito web non sono dirette a soggetti che potrebbero essere definiti "investitori retail" dall'autorità di vigilanza nazionale del paese dal quale si accede al sito stesso. Riconosco che le informazioni o le opinioni contenute in questo sito web non devono essere interpretate come un'offerta di vendita o come la sollecitazione di un'offerta di acquisto di un prodotto o un servizio di investimento, né tali prodotti o servizi di investimento possono essere offerti o venduti a soggetti di giurisdizioni nelle quali tale offerta, sollecitazione, acquisto o vendita sarebbero illegali. Questo sito web contiene giudizi e opinioni espressi da Fidelity, che sono soggetti a modifica e rispetto ai quali non sussiste alcun obbligo di aggiornamento. Nulla di quanto contenuto in questo sito web va considerato come una consulenza di investimento, fiscale, legale o di altra natura. Le informazioni qui riportate sono soggette a modifica senza preavviso.

Questo sito web è pubblicato da FIL Fund Management Limited (una società delle Bermuda autorizzata a svolgere attività d'investimento dalla Bermuda Monetary Authority). Né FIL Fund Management Limited, né la sua società madre FIL Limited, né alcuna delle loro società del gruppo o affiliate fornisce o rilascia alcuna garanzia o dichiarazione che le informazioni contenute in questo sito web siano accurate, complete o adatte a uno scopo particolare.

Riconosco che né FIL Fund Management Limited, né FIL Limited né alcuna delle loro società del gruppo o affiliate si assumono alcuna responsabilità per eventuali perdite derivanti direttamente o indirettamente da informazioni ottenute da questo sito web. Accettando questa dichiarazione confermo anche di aver letto, compreso e accettato i Termini e le condizioni d'uso del sito web.

Fidelity International, il logo Fidelity International e il simbolo F sono marchi di proprietà di FIL Limited, una società costituita nelle Bermuda.

Se la dichiarazione di cui sopra è corretta, cliccare "Accetto" qui sotto per continuare a visitare il sito.

重要な情報

私は、機関投資家(自己勘定取引を行う個人投資家以外の法人その他の投資家)として、あるいはかかる機関投資家のために、当ウェブサイトにアクセスし、情報を取得するものです。

私は、当ウェブサイトに掲載される情報は、かかる投資関連情報の流布が違反となる法域の人物に提供するものではなく、そういった人物によって拡散されたり利用されたりすることを意図したものでもないことを理解しています。また、当サイトに掲載される情報が、ウェブサイトにアクセスする場所の国の規制当局によって「個人投資家」と定義され得る人物に向けたものではなく、当サイトにある情報または意見は、何らかの投資商品の勧誘や募集と解釈すべきではなく、かかる投資商品またはサービスの募集、勧誘、売買が違法となる法域にいる人物に対して募集ないし販売されるものでもないことも理解しています。フィデリティは、当ウェブサイト上に自社の見解や意見を掲載していますが、これらは変わる可能性があり、そういった変更があった場合に当ウェブサイトを更新しなければならないという義務は負っていません。当ウェブサイトの内容はいずれも投資、税務、法務、その他の助言と解釈すべきではなく、ウェブサイト上の情報は通知なく変更される可能性があります。

当ウェブサイトはバミューダ籍の法人でバミューダ金融庁から投資事業免許を取得しているFILファンド・マネジメント・リミテッドが作成しています。FILファンド・マネジメント・リミテッド、その親会社であるFILリミテッド、またはそれらのグループ会社か関連会社のいずれも、当ウェブサイトに掲載される情報が正確であるとか、完全であるとか、特定の目的に適合したものである等の保証や表明は行っておらず、そういった保証や表明を提供することもありません。

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フィデリティ・インターナショナル、フィデリティ・インターナショナルのロゴおよびFのシンボルはバミューダ法の下で設立された法人であるFILリミテッドの商標です。

以上をご確認いただける場合には、以下の「同意します」ボタンをクリックしてください。

Important information

I confirm that I am accessing this website for the purpose of acquiring information as, or for, an Institutional Investor (a corporate or other non-retail investor acting for their own account).

I understand the information contained in this website is not directed at, nor is it intended for distribution to, or use by, persons in any jurisdiction in which the dissemination of such investment related information is not permitted. I also understand that the information contained in this site is not directed to any party that may be defined as a ‘retail investor’ by the home regulator of the country in which the website is being accessed. I understand that the information or opinions contained herein should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any investment product nor shall any such investment products or services be offered or sold to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful. Fidelity has expressed its own views and opinions on this website, and these may change and there is no obligation to update them. Nothing in this website should be construed as investment, tax, legal or other advice. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.

This website has been issued by FIL Fund Management Limited, a Bermuda company licensed to conduct investment business by the Bermuda Monetary Authority. Neither FIL Fund Management Limited, its parent company FIL Limited, nor any of their group companies or affiliates makes or gives any warranty or representation that any information contained on this website is accurate, complete, or fit for any particular purpose.

I acknowledge that neither FIL Fund Management Limited, FIL Limited, nor any of their group companies or affiliates will have any liability for any losses arising directly or indirectly from any information accessed from this website. By accepting this representation I also confirm my agreement to the website Terms and Conditions, which I have read and understood.

Please note that FIL Fund Management Limited is not licensed by the Liechtenstein Financial Market Authority (“FMA”) and is not subject to the supervision of the FMA.

Fidelity International, the Fidelity International logo and F symbol are trademarks of FIL Limited, a company existing under the laws of Bermuda.

If the above representation is correct, please click 'I agree' below to continue to the site.

Wichtige Informationen

Hiermit bestätige ich, dass ich diese Website zur Informationsbeschaffung als institutioneller Anleger (ein auf eigene Rechnung handelndes Unternehmen oder ein anderer nicht als Privatanleger geltender Investor) bzw. für einen institutionellen Anleger besuche.

Mir ist bewusst, dass sich die Informationen auf dieser Website nicht an Personen richten bzw. für sie bestimmt sind, in deren Land die Verbreitung solcher anlagebezogenen Informationen nicht erlaubt ist. Mir ist ebenfalls bewusst, dass sich die Informationen auf dieser Website nicht an Adressaten richtet, die von der Aufsichtsbehörde in dem Land, von dem aus die Website besucht wird, möglicherweise als „Privatanleger“ klassifiziert werden. Des Weiteren ist mir bewusst, dass die hier zu findenden Informationen oder Meinungen nicht als Aufforderung zum Kauf oder Verkauf eines Anlageprodukts zu verstehen sind. Es sollen auch keine solchen Anlageprodukte oder Dienstleistungen Personen angeboten oder verkauft werden, in deren Land ein entsprechendes Angebot, eine Aufforderung, ein Erwerb oder Verkauf ungesetzlich wäre. Fidelity äußert auf dieser Website seine eigenen Ansichten und Meinungen, die sich jederzeit ändern können, ohne dass eine Verpflichtung zur Aktualisierung besteht. Kein Inhalt dieser Website ist als Beratung in Bezug auf Geldanlagen, Steuern, rechtliche oder sonstige Aspekte zu verstehen. Die hierin enthaltenen Informationen können sich ohne entsprechende Mitteilung jederzeit ändern.

Diese Website wurde von FIL Fund Management Limited eingerichtet, einem Unternehmen mit Sitz auf bzw. nach dem Recht der Bermuda-Inseln, das über eine Genehmigung der Bermuda Monetary Authority zur Ausübung von Investmenttätigkeiten verfügt. Weder FIL Fund Management Limited noch sein Mutterunternehmen FIL Limited oder irgendein anderes Konzernunternehmen oder verbundenes Unternehmen übernimmt die Gewähr dafür oder erklärt, dass die Informationen auf dieser Website zutreffend, vollständig oder für jedwede Zwecke geeignet sind.

Ich erkenne an, dass weder FIL Fund Management Limited noch FIL Limited oder ein anderes Konzernunternehmen bzw. verbundenes Unternehmen für etwaige Verluste haftet, die direkt oder indirekt aus einer auf dieser Website beschafften Information resultieren. Durch Annahme dieser Erklärung bestätige ich auch mein Einverständnis mit den Nutzungs- und Geschäftsbedingungen dieser Website, die ich gelesen und verstanden habe.

Fidelity International, das Fidelity International Logo und das F-Symbol sind Markenzeichen von FIL Limited, einem nach dem Recht der Bermuda-Inseln eingetragenen Unternehmen.

Bitte beachten Sie, dass die FIL Fund Management Limited von der Finanzmarktaufsicht Liechtenstein weder zugelassen noch beaufsichtigt ist.

Diese Website präsentiert Informationen in englischer und deutscher Sprache. Als professioneller Anleger akzeptiere ich hiermit, Informationen in mehr als einer Sprache zu erhalten.

Wenn die obige Erklärung zutrifft, klicken Sie bitte auf „Ich stimme zu“, um auf die Website zu gelangen.

Reuters

Region by region: Analyst Survey 2019

by Raji Menon, Bob Chen, Lisa Twaronite and Adnan Siddique

Published 22 February 2019

ResearchAnalyst Survey

Looking at the Analyst Survey by region shows some striking common themes emerge, particularly around declining confidence and ebbing bullishness. Last year sentiment was at full-throttle, so 2019’s results should be regarded in that context, but the mood has distinctly shifted down a gear.

M&A, a strong indicator of corporate optimism, is down across the board, and, amid rising funding costs, company leverage is falling - perhaps less by design and more by compulsion as underlying cash flows deteriorate. But while the big picture looks similar, the granular details vary depending on the region, offering insight into the different conditions playing out across the globe.

Source: Fidelity Analyst Survey 2019.

North America: A tale of twin costs

Sentiment Indicator 0.4 vs. 1.6 last year

The story in North America can be boiled down into two words: costs and rates. As the US Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada were two of the few central banks to have been in a bona fide rate rising cycle in 2018, the North American corporate landscape has been shaped by costs - whether input costs or the cost of money. In fact, the primary cause of decreasing returns in North America is now increasing costs whereas last year it was disruptive technologies. The number of analysts citing input cost inflation as a problem has more than doubled to 37 per cent. A significant contributing factor is wage rises where 77 per cent say there is moderate or strong increase in pay, and this could be taking money away from the pot for investment - only 39 per cent indicate increasing capex, down from over half last year. An industrials analyst summed up the order of the effect of inflation, “first to cost structure and second to demand destruction”.

Company funding shows similar pressures. A full 59 per cent of analysts mentioned funding cost increases, well over double last year’s figure. This is contributing to pressure on servicing debt, with a third of analysts expecting an increase in default rates this year rising from 16 per cent of analysts last year. With more volatile equity markets and the potential of more defaults scaring bond investors, companies could be forced to change their capital sources. Indeed, our analysts say that most companies which are dealing with higher funding costs are relying on more expensive bank loans, whereas last year most opted for bond or equity issues.

Source: Fidelity Analyst Survey 2019.

We further explore business conditions in the US in this piece, which focusses on the policies of the Trump administration.

Japan: Off the boil

Sentiment Indicator 0.6 vs. 2.0 last year

Japan has gone from zero to hero and back again in the space of a few of years. Last year, we hailed ‘Abenomics’ and the shareholder friendly initiatives underway, but this year the region posts one of the sharpest reversals in sentiment. While Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has instituted a comprehensive set of reforms, there continues to be a lingering drag from deflationary forces around labour market flexibility, regulation and demographics.

Dividend expectations are particularly interesting, reflecting some optimism. Half of all analysts expect companies in Japan to increase dividend payouts in 2019, more than any other country.

But the cold, hard facts of the economic data are difficult to resist. Japan’s GDP growth figures have slowed over the past year and that’s showing up in our analysts’ observations. A hefty 29 per cent of analysts think returns on capital are dropping, up from 7 per cent in 2018, driven entirely by slower end demand growth. It follows that less than a third of corporate investment is directed towards growth spending, while that figure was nearly half last year, indicating “increasing reluctance for big capex decisions”, according to one consumer analyst.

Source: Fidelity Analyst Survey 2019.

Asia ex China and Japan: Caught between a rock and a hard place

Sentiment Indicator 0.5 vs. 1.2 last year

Asia (ex China and ex Japan) spent 2018 largely trying to navigate being caught in the middle of a burgeoning trade war between two superpowers and facing headwinds from a strong US dollar. Both challenges remain with China’s slowing economy adding more trouble. The region’s economy is gradually moving into maturity and slowdown but there’s still life left, with six out of ten analysts believing we are not yet at the end of the cycle.

Delving deeper into the region unearths how the corporate dynamics are changing. Asia ex China and Japan is well and truly going digital: 88 per cent of marketing spending increases are allocated to digital and none of the increase directed towards print or outdoor. There’s growing attention on more complex forms of IT with a bigger proportion of spending on cloud technology and security systems rather than mobile. As we report elsewhere in the edition, ESG issues also appear more prominently, particularly around supply chains, health and safety and executive compensation

Disruption is a bigger feature of corporate life with 95 per cent of analysts focussing on the region believing it could have an impact. An industrials analyst commented that disruption is most likely to come from “automation from the greater use of robotics in place of human labour”, challenging the assumption of cheap labour in developing countries.

Source: Fidelity Analyst Survey 2019.

Eastern Europe, Middle East, Africa and Latin America: Still basking in the sun

Sentiment Indicator 0.9 vs 1.5 last year

Despite the sentiment indicator falling back, EMEA/Latam still has a high reading - the most positive of any region. It’s easy to see why. A year ago, EMEA/Latam faced a busy schedule of corruption cases and elections, but it has largely come through this and is still benefitting from strong commodity prices which drive the economies in many parts of the region. What stands out most is its industry cycle: a full 92 per cent of analysts covering the region say it is still in some form of expansion stage - well above any other region.

This positive outlook is further supported by a third of analysts who say management teams are ‘more confident’, which is the highest anywhere. Another 42 per cent expect capital investment to rise, a significant bump on last year’s 31 per cent. No other region shows an increase here. “Some Russian oil and steel companies have had windfall gains from a strong dollar, and higher oil and commodity prices that have seen their free cash flow yields improve by double digit figures, allowing them to invest in capex and pay out dividends,” said one analyst covering the region.

But EMEA/Latam is not free from geopolitical threats. Three-quarters of analysts point to protectionist measures having a negative effect on the region. That figure is higher than any other region, perhaps mostly due to the export dependence of Mexico and Central America on the US. This is also showing up in the effect of investment in the region. Half the analysts think investment will be hurt, up from 38 per cent last year.

Source: Fidelity Analyst Survey 2019.

Europe: More gloom than doom

Sentiment Indicator 0.6 vs 1.6 last year

The growing optimism seen this time last year has given away to gloom. Other than China, no other region sees such a big jump in the number of less confident managers who are weighed down by the slowing economy, Brexit and populism. “European macro, interest rates and the effect of Brexit on consumer confidence are the biggest risk factors, affecting the fundamentals of European financials. Our worst-case scenario is inflation going up and growth down,” said an analyst covering European financials.

A third of analysts mention falling returns, up from 13 per cent last year, but unlike Japan the drivers of this are widespread including slower end demand growth, rising costs, regulatory headwinds and competitive pressures. Corporates are responding however. More analysts are seeing their companies reduce leverage and half have companies positioning balance sheets cautiously versus a third in 2018.

Despite managers shifting to a more cautious stance, policymakers should still be mindful. Over three-quarters of our analysts believe fiscal stimulus will have a neutral impact compared to just 17 per cent last year. Given a quarter of our analysts point to a slowing industry cycle in Europe, fiscal policy may not offer the boost it once did.

Source: Fidelity Analyst Survey 2019.

UK: Increasing Brexit concerns

Britain’s divorce terms from the European Union seems no clearer than they did a year ago, and as we approach the deadline of Article 50, the uncertainty is increasingly weighing on investment decision-making. The proportion of analysts covering Europe who say Brexit will have a negative impact on strategic investment of the companies they follow over the next two years, has marched upward from 63 per cent to 70 per cent this year. The negative impact on UK investment specifically has similarly climbed higher.

As concerns mount over the possibility of a no-deal Brexit having a knock-on effect on medicine supply chains, analysts covering the healthcare sector are particularly despondent with the percentage expecting a negative investment impact jumping from 25 per cent to 64 per cent. “Brexit has created a lot of uncertainty and has reduced the willingness of companies to take risks in the UK, while the British government appears to be in limbo, with only a limited number of new service contracts awarded in the past two years,” said one analyst.

However, the further away analysts’ companies are from the UK, the less of an impact Brexit seems to have. Only 7 per cent of analyst covering Chinese companies expect a negative impact, versus 35 per cent in North America and 70 per cent in Europe. The impact of Brexit on UK inflation intriguingly hasn’t shifted much from last year, with the bulk of analysts continuing to say it is stable.

Source: Fidelity Analyst Survey 2019.

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