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All eyes on Buenos Aires for make-or-break G20 summit

At the upcoming G20 meeting in Buenos Aires, the stakes are high for Presidents Trump and Xi as they are expected to meet in a bid to break the trade deadlock. In terms of possible outcomes, we believe that while there is the possibility of a truce, the hawks on both sides may have outsize influence on the debate, and further entrench the leaders into a stalemate.
by Ian Samson Markets Analyst

30 November 2018, 14:06 GMT

Deal vs no deal

As things stand, the US is planning to raise existing tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, to 25 per cent from 10 per cent from January. Trump is also threatening to impose tariffs on a further $267 billion of Chinese goods. But recent stock market volatility, continued tightening by the Federal Reserve, US soybean crops previously destined for China rotting in fields, and General Motors’ announcement this week of 14,000 job cuts may have given Trump some reasons for pause.

Indeed, US Chief Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow said on Tuesday that the President was open to the idea of a deal. But Trump himself has continued to be combative, and in an interview earlier this week reiterated his threat to impose new levies on Chinese imports if no deal is reached.

In our view, the best-case scenario would be an immediate truce in the form of an agreement delaying new tariffs for several months, while the US and China try and come to a longer-term solution. While less appealing, another form of truce could be where the overall tone of the meeting is positive, leading to a postponement, but not cancellation, of the additional 25 per cent tariffs.

'China First’

On a recent trip to China, it was clear that the slowdown in economic growth, mainly due to deleveraging the banking system, was the biggest worry for locals. While trade wars are front-of-mind globally, they were notably a good few notches lower on their list of concerns.

We got the impression that Beijing has shifted its thinking on trade wars in the past two to three months. They have realised that this is [1] not just Trump; [2] not just Republicans; [3] not just about the trade deficit and [4] not going away. This is, in some way, an improvement - the sides are no longer talking past each other.

The sentiment appears to be that Xi sees the threat of tariffs as a US containment strategy, and that Beijing is unlikely to give enough ground to satisfy US concerns regarding state-owned enterprises and subsidies reform. Another view that came to the fore was that Xi thinks his domestic policy is right for China, and that China’s domestic market is big enough to offset a US export slowdown. All this has emboldened the hawks around him.

Our view is that while Beijing better understands the ‘problem’ now, the underlying strategy seems to be to continue at full speed with the domestic policies that the US has issues with - i.e. China First, but with the rhetoric toned down. Indeed, we worry that Xi is ‘not for turning’ on either domestic or foreign policies. As such, the risk is that 2018 was only the start of the pain, not the end.

The Buenos Aires summit could end in some form of truce; equally we worry that the hawks around Trump and Xi will prevail, and neither side will be willing to compromise enough to end this stalemate.

The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up so you may get back less than you invest. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

These materials are provided for information purposes only and are intended only for the person or entity to which it is sent.

These materials do not constitute a distribution, an offer or solicitation to engage the investment management services of Fidelity, or an offer to buy or sell or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities or investment product.

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Investors should also note that the views expressed may no longer be current and may have already been acted upon by Fidelity. They are valid only as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice.

This material was created by Fidelity International. It must not be reproduced or circulated to any other party without prior permission of Fidelity.

This communication is not directed at, and must not be acted on by persons inside the United States and is otherwise only directed at persons residing in jurisdictions where the relevant funds are authorised for distribution or where no such authorisation is required. Fidelity is not authorised to manage or distribute investment funds or products in, or to provide investment management or advisory services to persons resident in, mainland China. All persons and entities accessing the information do so on their own initiative and are responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations and should consult their professional advisers. This content may contain materials from third-parties which are supplied by companies that are not affiliated with any Fidelity entity (Third-Party Content). Fidelity has not been involved in the preparation, adoption or editing of such third-party materials and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse or approve such content.

Fidelity International refers to the group of companies which form the global investment management organisation that provides products and services in designated jurisdictions outside of North America Fidelity, Fidelity International, the Fidelity International logo and F symbol are trademarks of FIL Limited. Fidelity only offers information on products and services and does not provide investment advice personal recommendations based on individual circumstances.

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In Hong Kong, this content is issued by FIL Investment Management (Hong Kong) Limited and it has not been reviewed by the Securities and Future Commission. FIL Investment Management (Singapore) Limited (Co. Reg. No: 199006300E) is the legal representative of Fidelity International in Singapore. FIL Asset Management (Korea) Limited is the legal representative of Fidelity International in Korea. In Taiwan, independently operated by FIL Securities (Taiwan ) Limited, 11F, 68 Zhongxiao East Road, Section 5, Xinyi Dist., Taipei City, Taiwan 11065, R.O.C. Customer Service Number: 0800-00-9911#2.

Issued in Australia by Fidelity Responsible Entity (Australia) Limited ABN 33 148 059 009, AFSL No. 409340 (“Fidelity Australia”). This material has not been prepared specifically for Australian investors and may contain information which is not prepared in accordance with Australian law.

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