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Ultime analisi

Le opinioni e gli approfondimenti dei nostri esperti degli investimenti.

Emerging market GEARs weaken further in September

Our macro indicator shows emerging markets are under pressure

Trade wars revisited: US politics and impact on China

The US-China trade war relates to the US electoral cycle and to Trump’s image as ‘deal maker’, and also has a longer-term impact on China.

As market sells off, stay vigilant but calm

In light of the recent sell-off, it is important to watch the current apparent risks closely while focusing on stock selection rather than macro forecasting.

Fidelity Leading Indicator: Qualified optimism or qualified pessimism

Our proprietary Fidelity Leading Indicator (FLI) is edging up towards the ‘top-left’ quadrant, which suggests that a trough could be approaching.

Tech stocks sell off, but fundamentals remain intact

Tech stocks fared badly in the recent sell off, but fundamentals remain intact.

Risk-off for the US but not for everywhere else

The right response for investors to signs of the US market losing momentum is to hunt for value in areas which have already been aggressively sold down.

Market friendly Bolsonaro’s first round win in Brazilian election should calm investor nerves

Far-right candidate's first-round win could boost markets

Japan’s companies are evolving against a solid economic backdrop

Japan is changing, meaning better profits and returns for companies. Combined with attractive valuations, this can mean sustainable investor returns.

The Italian government surprises markets with plan to increase budget deficit

The Italian government threw down a gauntlet to the European Commission by announcing a spending-prone budget that defied expectations.

The Fed offers anniversary gift 10 years after global financial crisis

Fed offers anniversary gift 10 years after global financial crisis

Further Fed tightening could prove too much for the rest of the world

The Fed will have to strike a more cautious tone, slowing the pace of tightening next year - but we are not there yet.

GEAR levels show exuberant US economy

Recent economic data show an exuberant US economy, stabilisation in emerging markets and only a slight tick-down in Europe.
Uncharted waters: Creating an ESG investment checklist through water sustainability

Uncharted waters: Creating an ESG investment checklist through water sustainability

Uncharted waters: Creating an ESG investment checklist through water sustainability

India’s fundamentals remain strong despite falling rupee stoking EM fears

Volatile emerging markets have raised concerns that India could be the next casualty in the EM rout

September's Rich Pickings podcast: A world at the mercy of America

September's Rich Pickings podcast: A world at the mercy of America

The US is playing an increasingly central role in world markets. Why does this matter?

Investment Outlook Q4 2018: The uncharted path

Investment Outlook Q4 2018: The uncharted path

Fidelity's outlook for equities, bonds and alternatives.

Fidelity Leading Indicator: the trough isn’t here, but could be getting near

Our proprietary Fidelity Leading Indicator has now registered six straight months in the ‘growth negative and decelerating’ quadrant of its Cycle Tracker.

ESG awareness is an enduring legacy of the global financial crisis

The global financial crisis pushed ESG principles to the forefront, which would not have occurred as rapidly without the catalyst of the crisis.

South African land expropriation will exacerbate economic woes and increase volatility

South African land expropriation will exacerbate economic woes and increase volatility

South Africa's proposed land expropriation is likely to add to souring of emerging market sentiment and trigger further sell off in the country's assets

Green bonds: Awakening the green giant

Targeting carbon reduction could help investors deterred by the lack of standardisation and uncompetitive returns in the green bond market.

Optimising emerging market debt exposure

Emerging market debt can help diversify and improve yields in global bond portfolios. Total return solution offers the best risk-adjusted return potential.

Global growth: running out of steam

Global growth, which has been led by the US, is losing momentum, while China is also cooling.

Ten years since the crisis: the risks have changed

Ten years since the crisis: the risks have changed

Investors and policy makers have learned their lessons, but we may be looking in the wrong direction for the next dislocations.

As global liquidity tightens, Argentina’s troubles will continue

As global liquidity tightens, Argentina’s troubles will continue

Argentina markets will remain vulnerable because of specific challenges, but all emerging markets are suffering from tightening global liquidity.

No exit: Japanese banks continue to feel pain from BOJ’s easy policy

Japan’s banks need to innovate to thrive in the low interest environment rather than wait for the eventual end of the Bank of Japan’s easy monetary policies.

Five entrenched biases in the institutional real estate market

Five entrenched biases in the institutional real estate market

Professional investors in commercial real estate markets are not immune from investing mistakes rooted in cognitive biases.

Building a portfolio: why picking good stocks isn't enough

The discipline of ‘stock picking’ is the bread and butter of most active portfolio managers. However, it’s only one part of the investment process.

August's Rich Pickings podcast: Could Turkey's turmoils travel?

August's Rich Pickings podcast: Could Turkey's turmoils travel?

Is the Turkey crisis isolated or systemic? And if it does spread, where do Fidelity's asset allocators think its effects will be most significant?

Tencent as bellwether

Tencent’s apparent setbacks look to be short term and not structural. A closer look reveals a wide moat in online gaming and social messaging.

US-China trade tensions: Why investors should mind the fundamentals

US-China trade tensions: Why investors should mind the fundamentals

US-China trade tensions: Why investors should mind the fundamentals

Turkey's policy response falls short

Turkey’s escalating financial crisis has raised concerns over contagion as selling has spread more broadly across emerging markets in recent days.

Turkey crosses the Rubicon

Turkey crosses the Rubicon

Turkish markets spiral downwards with the lira now in a full blown crisis. The solutions are simple, but is there the political will to implement them.

US sanction pressure against Russia will keep rising

The last few years have seen a continued worsening of diplomatic relations between Russia and the US - and this trend will probably persist.

Grit in the machine: Assessing the US-China trade war impact for investors

Grit in the machine: Assessing the US-China trade war impact for investors

There are two ways the US-China trade war situation could play out for investors, depending on US policymakers’ motives for the current action.

What to watch at the end of the cycle

The world seems full of questions at the moment about the end of the cycle, the effect of quantitative tightening, valuations and the trade war.

Policy tweaks open new opportunities in China and Japan

Recent easing measures in China should support Asian high yield bonds, while we also see value in Japan financials bolstered by the BOJ's ETF purchases.

No surprises as the Fed sticks to the plan, for now

There were no surprises as the Fed stuck to the plan, and for good reason: data is strong and inflation on track.

The Bank of Japan fine-tunes monetary policy but sticks to aggressive easing

The Bank of Japan fine-tunes monetary policy but sticks to aggressive easing

The Bank of Japan kept its easy monetary policy while tweaking its framework to give itself more flexibility, emphasising that normalisation is nowhere near.

GEAR levels show US economic exuberance could continue into H2

Our Gauges of Economic Activity in Real-Time (GEAR) show that US GEAR levels of 4 per cent almost exactly matched the second quarter GDP print.

A BoE rate hike is an unnecessary risk

This August, we expect the Bank of England (BoE) to stand and deliver only their second interest rate rise in the past ten years.

The ECB’s monetary policy is needlessly loose

The European Central Bank’s (ECB) unnecessarily loose monetary policy may leave it out of options when the next downturn comes.

Credit markets react to China's new easing measures

Credit markets react to China's new easing measures

China’s emphasis on deleveraging has softened in recent months, but credit flow to the economy has remained weak.

Investment Outlook Q3 2018: Sunny spells with thundery showers

Investment Outlook Q3 2018: Sunny spells with thundery showers

Fidelity's outlook for equities, bonds and alternatives.

Revisiting the 'Fragile Five' at five

Revisiting the 'Fragile Five' at five

Five years since they were dubbed the 'Fragile Five', the emerging market economies of Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey look more robust.

Turkey’s interest rate hold is a policy mistake

Turkey’s interest rate hold is a policy mistake

Turkey’s inaction on the benchmark interest rate is a major policy mistake, undoing much of the good of the rate rises in Q2.

Emerging Markets outlook: Not out of the woods

Despite better data in June, the Fidelity Leading Indicator remains negative, especially in key EM-sensitive areas like global trade and commodities.

Japan’s millennials are turning more positive on investing

Japan’s millennials are turning more positive on investing

Younger Japanese people are turning more positive toward investing and are doing more of it, Fidelity’s latest annual survey of Japanese workers showed.

Assessing cumulative risk in European real estate

How to navigate the mounting risk as the end of the cycle draws near.

After a trip to Italy, market pricing looks too bearish

A recent road-trip to Italy has led me to believe that investors’ perception of the current situation is too bearish, especially around the budget.

China’s upgrades to Bond Connect should broaden foreign participation

China’s upgrades to Bond Connect should broaden foreign participation

China's Bond Connect allows foreign investors to access the interbank bond market more easily. New upgrades should remove remaining barriers to adoption.

Fidelity Leading Indicator: growth down, risks rising

Fidelity Leading Indicator: growth down, risks rising

Our proprietary Fidelity Leading Indicator (FLI) remains in the ‘growth negative and decelerating’ quadrant of its Cycle Tracker for the fourth straight month.

July's Rich Pickings podcast: Grit in the system risks unravelling of global economy

July's Rich Pickings podcast: Grit in the system risks unravelling of global economy

Fidelity's Asset Allocation Group meet to discuss their positioning this month, hard-to-read market sentiment, and the growing seriousness of a trade war.

US-China trade tensions ratchet up

The US has launched another round of tariffs on exports from China, sparking market jitters. But there are reasons to be positive on Chinese equities.

A burden shared: bail-in bonds for GSIBs

What are bail-in bonds and what do they mean for investors?

What I've learned: Bill McQuaker on his Mum's invaluable lessons

What I've learned: Bill McQuaker on his Mum's invaluable lessons

Portfolio Manager Bill McQuaker recalls what he learned from his mother's wise teachings and how it held him in good stead for an investment career.

The impact of ESG investing on corporate bonds

The impact of ESG investing on corporate bonds

Integrating ESG characteristics beyond pure financial data in a corporate bond portfolio adds value by improving performance and reducing returns volatility.

The return of the information edge brings three new opportunities

The return of the information edge brings three new opportunities

Opportunities arise from new inefficiencies: over-excitement about ‘big data’, consequences of increased disclosure, and the impact of non-fundamental actors.

AMLO’s election win in Mexico will be positive for markets

AMLO’s election win in Mexico will be positive for markets

AMLO’s pro-growth agenda will ultimately be more benign and investor-friendly than the market’s worst fears.

Stick with investment grade bonds as volatility increases

Despite volatile markets, European investment grade credit will still reward investors over the long term.

Turkey: EM outlook still challenging after Erdogan win

Turkey: EM outlook still challenging after Erdogan win

President Erdogan's victory in Turkey's elections should remove some political uncertainty, but the long-term outlook for EM markets remains challenging.

US-China trade tensions: Round Two likely to weigh on earnings

The US-China trade tensions have ratcheted up after Donald Trump warned of further protectionist measures.

Draghi locks market expectations

The ECB announced a final tapering of its QE programme, but the guidance could hardly have been more dovish at the June meeting.

ECB surprises with dovishness

The ECB said it will cut in half its monthly QE bond buying from Sept 2018 and end the programme at the end of the year. Main rate is held at 0 per cent.

Buckle blog: Fed takes steps toward normalisation

The Fed upwardly revised its economic projections, removed forward guidance and moved monetary policy closer to normal. 

Business as usual for the Fed

Business as usual as the Fed hikes interest rates by 25 basis points and signals two more rate hikes by December.

Buckle blog: Risk and opportunity amid heightened political noise

Here are my thoughts on three major political events over the last few weeks and the investment opportunities they present.

Divergent paths for the Fed and ECB

Markets are focusing again on macro conditions, with two key central bank meetings set for this week. But the Fed and the ECB are walking divergent paths.

The Fed faces a tough choice on the speed of balance sheet reduction

The May FOMC meeting raised some bigger questions about the length of time over which the Fed will be shrinking their balance sheet

Busy signal for US high yield telcos

The final ruling on the long drawn out AT&T - Time Warner acquisition dispute could alter the negative net supply dynamic in the US high-yield market.

Our emerging markets debt World Cup team

Fidelity's Emerging Markets Debt team picks its 2018 World Cup team

Turkey rates hike is a bold and unexpected move

The government is acknowledging the dangerous macro imbalances in their economy.

Global trade has bigger problems than Donald Trump

Tariffs are not the reason global economic growth is slowing.

Despite political upheaval, Spain is in a better place than Italy

Investors should view conditions in Spain more favourably than those in Italy despite the ousting of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy.

Asia fixed income fundamentals remain stable despite market turmoil

Asia fixed income fundamentals remain stable despite market turmoil

Italy: Repricing risk amid political crisis

Italy: Repricing risk amid political crisis

How will political uncertainty in Italy impact markets?

Emerging markets - a storm brewing?

China holds the key to emerging markets' fortunes.

May's Rich Pickings: An historic moment on the podcast as equities moves to neutral

“In what feels an historic moment, we have taken our equity position down to neutral,” announces Multi Asset CIO James Bateman in this month’s Rich Pickings.

On the run: The rise and fall of BTPs

Italian politics sparks a re-think of risk.

What's unusual about the UK stock market (it's not politics!)

Value outperforming growth in the UK is not due to Brexit.

Will oil finally deliver inflation?

Higher oil prices could act as a 'tax' on growth.

Japan’s proposal to revise Companies Act is welcome

Hiroki Sampei, Fidelity's Head of Engagement in Japan, welcomes the government’s latest proposed revisions to the country’s Companies Act.

Investment Outlook Q2 2018: Choppier waters ahead

Investment Outlook Q2 2018: Choppier waters ahead

Fidelity's outlook for equities, bonds and alternatives.

Malaysia elections: a market view

Malaysia elections: a market view

Mahathir Mohamad inherits an economy on solid footing but markets are likely to be volatile in the short term.

European equities - where next?

A positive outlook despite an underwhelming 2017.

Oil: tallying the market impact of US withdrawal from Iran deal

We look at the potential impact on global oil supply and pricing of the US decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement.

On the run: The difference between US and European high yield

Differences in leverage in the US and Europe are causing divergence in high yield markets.

Buckle opinion: US labour data supports equities

The latest unemployment release of 3.9 per cent is the lowest level since the 1960s and shows the US economy is still growing, but without inflation.

An Argentinian canary in the coal mine: which emerging markets could be next?

An Argentinian canary in the coal mine: which emerging markets could be next?

What does Argentina's recent turmoil mean for other emerging markets?

Buckle opinion: What the Fed’s left unsaid, says it all

What the Federal Reserve did not say in its May meeting was more important than what it said.

On the run: UK interest rates - damned if you do, damned if you don’t

The probability of a UK rate hike in May has collapsed from 90 per cent to less than 20 per cent in a matter of weeks. Why?

Buckle opinion: My view on a 3 per cent treasury yield

As 10-year treasury yields hit 3 per cent levels, investors that had taken duration out of their bond portfolios should consider buying back.

ESG in equity: What counts cannot always be counted

ESG in equity: What counts cannot always be counted

The PM's view: for investors keen to make a positive difference and still generate good returns, what is important can’t always be found in spreadsheets.

Featured in: ESG: Is it worth it?

Flora: finally an LBO with some spread

Flora: finally an LBO with some spread

We believe that the Flora leveraged buy-out is an example of a good value proposition for high yield investment portfolios.

What the VIX tells us about the future direction of equity markets

Does the recent spike in the VIX index signal a buying opportunity for equities?

Geopolitics might be the wrong place to look for risk

Where is risk really coming from?

Buckle opinion: Equities aren’t expensive (But earnings are crucial)

Equities have reached the end of the cycle; if they do slide further, P/E metrics would make them cheap

Excitement over Hong Kong's currency intervention may be missing the point

Investors should mind the impact that Hong Kong's currency interventions could have on liquidity in the local economy, especially on the property market.

On the run: Early elections to tame the Turkish tiger

On the run: Early elections to tame the Turkish tiger

What does President Erdogan's early election announcement mean for Turkish bond markets?

How high is China’s unemployment?

How high is China’s unemployment?

China just released a new monthly gauge of urban employment. Alongside GDP, this will be one of the most significant indicators for tracking the economy.

On the run: Democratic decline in Latin America

Latin American elections in 2018 and 2019 will come at a time when support for democracy in the region is at its lowest levels on record.

Russia sanctions: what happens next?

What will be the fallout from US sanctions against Russian oligarchs and companies introduced on 6 April?

What I've learned: Eugene Philalithis on trends, investor traps and the go-go days in Asia

What I've learned: Eugene Philalithis on trends, investor traps and the go-go days in Asia

Eugene Philalithis, multi-asset, cut his teeth as a trader in Asia in the heady late 90s, only for the Asian debt crisis to slam markets into reverse.

ESG and unexpected risks: economic populism

The markets are not fully reflecting we are in the early stages of a swing in the pendulum away from owners of capital back toward customers and workers.

On the run: China's surging Government bond yields

Ten-year Chinese bond yield surged to a three-year high.