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US-China trade tariffs: markets focus on risk of escalation

The current proposals for trade tariffs are limited, but there is a risk that this might escalate and become more damaging.

by Neil Gough

23 March 2018, 11:33 GMT

President Trump met Xi Jinping in China in November 2017.
President Trump met Xi Jinping in China in November 2017. Photo: White House

Investors are concerned that recent US-China tariff announcements mark the beginning of difficult trade conversations across a number of sectors between the world’s two largest economies.

Source: US Department of Commerce (census basis), Fidelity International.

The context

Markets have been on edge in recent days over fresh concerns that trade tensions between the United States and China could escalate further.

Fears of a trade war have increased due to plans for punitive tariffs on as much as $60 billion in imports from China announced Thursday by the administration of US president Donald J. Trump. The US now has 15 days to announce what products it will target.

On Friday, China’s commerce ministry announced its own plans for $3 billion in tariffs on imports of US pork, steel, recycled aluminium fruit, ginseng and wine.

So far, the targeted amounts are relatively modest compared to a bilateral trade in goods between the two countries of more than US$600 billion.

For example, the Trump administration’s previously announced tariffs on imports of steel and aluminium would actually have a minimal impact on China. China’s steel exports to the US accounts for about 0.1% of total production, and aluminium exports are around 2% of total production.

However, the risk is that these recent tariff announcements mark the beginning of difficult trade conversations across a number of sectors between the world’s two largest economies.

Fidelity views

Tim Orchard, CIO, Equities, Asia-Pacific ex-Japan:

Over several decades, the global economy has clearly benefited from bilateral and multilateral trade liberalisation initiatives that have incrementally lowered barriers to trade. Whilst there might be a temptation to use trade barriers to redress the costs that trade imposes on certain industries in any one country, in aggregate the costs of protection typically exceed any benefit received for an individual economy. Whilst the current proposals for tariffs are limited, there is a risk that this might escalate and become more damaging. It is this risk that markets have recently started to focus on.

Bryan Collins, Head of Asian Fixed Income:

Overall, the news related to trade protectionism will lead to pockets of volatility, although considering the supportive macro fundamentals, this will likely present itself as potential buying opportunities subject to careful issuers and securities selection. Besides exports, consumption is a key pillar for Asian markets’ growth. In China, consumption contributed to over 60% of 2017 GDP, as the economy is transiting from a manufacturing and export driven economy to a service and consumption based one. India has a more self-contained economy, which makes it relatively insulated compared to other export-driven economies. Equally helpful is the stable quality of Indian credit. On the other hand, Indonesia could be more impacted.

Yee Kok Wei, Equity Portfolio Manager:

Every new US president always thinks they can do a better job than their predecessors at improving the US trade balance. But generally, they don’t succeed because trade is a complex issue, and with increased globalisation, everybody’s interest becomes too intertwined to be solved by an easy fix like trade tariffs. A trade deficit is no longer a straightforward zero sum game of a trade deficit country versus a trade surplus country, due to the globalised supply chain and globalised ownership of corporations.

Trump’s current trade strategy does not even have broad support domestically, let alone internationally, mainly because it is a bad approach that does not play into the US’s strength. The TPP, if implemented, would have been a better approach for the US to take. The last US president that managed to get significant concessions from trade partners was Reagan. It was different then, as Reagan was a largely popular president with broad domestic support, and with an ongoing cold war, he had the luxury of significant security leverage with trade partners.

I believe Trump will have to eventually reverse course, so maybe the markets going down harder and faster in the near term might be a price worth paying.

Read more

17 August 2018, 01:34 GMT

14 August 2018, 09:56 GMT

10 August 2018, 12:56 GMT

This document is for Investment Professionals only, and should not be relied upon by private investors.

The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up so you may get back less than you invest. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

These materials are provided for information purposes only and are intended only for the person or entity to which it is sent.

These materials do not constitute a distribution, an offer or solicitation to engage the investment management services of Fidelity, or an offer to buy or sell or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities or investment product. Fidelity makes no representations that the contents are appropriate for use in all locations or that the transactions or services discussed are available or appropriate for sale or use in all jurisdictions or countries or by all investors or counterparties.

Investors should also note that the views expressed may no longer be current and may have already been acted upon by Fidelity. They are valid only as the of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice.

This material was created by Fidelity International.. It must not be reproduced or circulated to any other party without prior permission of Fidelity.

This communication is not directed at, and must not be acted on by persons inside the United States and is otherwise only directed at persons residing in jurisdictions where the relevant funds are authorised for distribution or where no such authorisation is required. Fidelity is not authorised to manage or distribute investment funds or products in, or to provide investment management or advisory services to persons resident in, mainland China. All persons and entities accessing the information do so on their own initiative and are responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations and should consult their professional advisers.

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IC18-64